GRAIL LLC Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| GRAL Stock | 48.47 0.06 0.12% |
This reference page presents Simple Exponential Smoothing forecast data for GRAIL LLC. The model output shown here is derived from GRAIL LLC's historical price series and is provided for informational purposes.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of GRAIL LLC on the next trading day is expected to be 48.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 247.14.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting GRAIL LLC forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent GRAIL LLC observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. This Simple Exponential Smoothing forecast data for GRAIL LLC is sourced from the most recent available trading data and is intended solely as reference information. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 21st of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of GRAIL LLC on the next trading day is expected to be 48.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.05 , mean absolute percentage error of 62.31 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 247.14 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict GRAIL Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that GRAIL LLC's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest GRAIL LLC | GRAIL LLC Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for GRAIL LLC uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. At the moment, the model places downside around 39.91 and upside around 57.03 for the forecasting period.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of GRAIL LLC stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent GRAIL LLC stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 122.2426 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.6987 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 4.0515 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0564 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 247.14 |
Other Forecasting Options for GRAIL LLC
For every potential investor in GRAIL, whether a beginner or expert, GRAIL LLC's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better.GRAIL LLC Related Equities
The following equities are related to GRAIL LLC within the Health Care space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing GRAIL LLC against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
GRAIL LLC Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how GRAIL LLC stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading GRAIL LLC shares will generate the highest return on.
GRAIL LLC Risk Indicators
The analysis of GRAIL LLC's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in GRAIL LLC's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it.
| Mean Deviation | 4.68 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 8.21 | |||
| Variance | 67.45 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for GRAIL LLC
A coverage review of GRAIL LLC shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
GRAIL LLC Short Properties
A short-interest review of GRAIL LLC provides context for understanding whether skepticism in the market is becoming more influential. The practical goal is to identify when the balance between long and short participation may be changing the quality of the setup.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 36.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 904.4 M |