GOLDMAN SACHS Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| GMPPX Fund | USD 35.36 -0.22 -0.62% |
Goldman Sachs Mid's Simple Exponential Smoothing reference page covers the model's projected value and error measures from recent price data. The forecast output and associated deviation metrics are shown for informational use.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Goldman Sachs Mid on the next trading day is expected to be 35.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.26 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.97.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Goldman Sachs Mid forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent GOLDMAN SACHS observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. All Simple Exponential Smoothing forecast figures shown for Goldman Sachs Mid are reference data reflecting model output based on available historical prices. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Goldman Sachs Mid on the next trading day is expected to be 35.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.26 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.12 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.97 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict GOLDMAN Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that GOLDMAN SACHS's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
Forecasting Goldman Sachs Mid for the next session involves measuring the model's historical ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios. No forecasting approach has been shown to beat all others over time. Investors should treat any model output as a guide, not a guarantee.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of GOLDMAN SACHS mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent GOLDMAN SACHS mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.0203 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -4.0E-4 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2617 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0071 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 15.9659 |
Other Forecasting Options for GOLDMAN SACHS
Bollinger Bands applied to GOLDMAN Mutual Fund price data measure how far GOLDMAN has deviated from its recent average relative to its own volatility. This distinction drives the choice of forecasting model applied to GOLDMAN SACHS's price data.GOLDMAN SACHS Related Equities
These firms work in a similar space as GOLDMAN SACHS within the Mid-Cap Blend space and serve as useful points for comparison. Profit comparisons show whether GOLDMAN SACHS earns above or below average returns next to its peers. Peer review is most useful when paired with absolute pricing and trend checks. These checks provide a starting point for deeper study of GOLDMAN SACHS's strengths and weak spots.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
GOLDMAN SACHS Market Strength Events
For investors tracking Goldman Sachs Mid, market strength indicators offer quantitative evaluation of mutual fund behavior. These indicators add context to timing decisions around Goldman Sachs Mid positions.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 35.36 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 35.36 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.11 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.22 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 41.68 |
GOLDMAN SACHS Risk Indicators
Analyzing GOLDMAN SACHS's basic risk indicators provides investors with a structured view of the risk-return trade-off for goldman mutual fund. By identifying the level of risk embedded in GOLDMAN SACHS's investment, investors can make informed decisions about position sizing.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7045 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.992 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.9539 | |||
| Variance | 0.91 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.11 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.9841 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.70 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for GOLDMAN SACHS
A coverage review of Goldman Sachs Mid shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. A disciplined read of coverage separates durable relevance from temporary noise.
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