Galmed Pharmaceuticals Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| GLMD Stock | USD 0.58 -0.03 -4.92% |
This page documents Double Exponential Smoothing forecast output for Galmed Pharmaceuticals as reference data. The model is applied to historical closing prices and the resulting projection and error statistics are shown below.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Galmed Pharmaceuticals on the next trading day is expected to be 0.58 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.80.When Galmed Pharmaceuticals prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Galmed Pharmaceuticals trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Galmed Pharmaceuticals observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. The Double Exponential Smoothing reference information for Galmed Pharmaceuticals is based on available price data and is intended for informational purposes. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 20th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Galmed Pharmaceuticals on the next trading day is expected to be 0.58 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.0015 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.80 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Galmed Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Galmed Pharmaceuticals' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Galmed Pharmaceuticals | Galmed Pharmaceuticals Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for Galmed Pharmaceuticals focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. At the moment, the model places downside around 0.01 and upside around 5.36 for the forecasting period.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Galmed Pharmaceuticals stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Galmed Pharmaceuticals stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0053 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0305 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0431 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.8004 |
Other Forecasting Options for Galmed Pharmaceuticals
Any investor evaluating Galmed must grapple with the challenge of interpreting Galmed Pharmaceuticals' price movement accurately. Galmed Stock price charts typically contain substantial noise that can complicate analysis and lead to poor decisions.Galmed Pharmaceuticals Related Equities
The following equities are related to Galmed Pharmaceuticals within the Health Care space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Galmed Pharmaceuticals against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Galmed Pharmaceuticals Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Galmed Pharmaceuticals assess how the stock responds to ongoing changes in market conditions and investor sentiment. By monitoring these indicators, investors can identify the most opportune moments to trade Galmed Pharmaceuticals.
Galmed Pharmaceuticals Risk Indicators
Risk indicator analysis for Galmed Pharmaceuticals is a critical component of accurate price forecasting and sound investment decision-making. By identifying how much risk is embedded in Galmed Pharmaceuticals' investment, investors can decide how to position and protect their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 3.7 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.78 | |||
| Variance | 22.87 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Galmed Pharmaceuticals
A coverage review of Galmed Pharmaceuticals helps investors see when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Galmed Pharmaceuticals Short Properties
A short-interest review of Galmed Pharmaceuticals helps investors understand whether skepticism in the market is becoming more influential. The stronger read compares short sentiment with trend behavior, volume, and the broader market narrative.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 930.8 K | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 15.3 M |