ProShares UltraShort Etf Forward View - Simple Moving Average

GLL Etf  USD 18.03  0.02  0.11%   
At this point in time, the RSI momentum reading for ProShares UltraShort is 0, signaling extreme oversold conditions. Historically, RSI levels this depressed have preceded relief bounces, though the magnitude and duration vary widely.
Momentum
Sell Peaked
 
Oversold
 
Overbought
Predicting where ProShares UltraShort's stock will trade is more achievable when sentiment data complements traditional analysis. This module isolates the sentiment-driven component of price to highlight potential mispricings.
This view aligns ProShares UltraShort's headline activity with price response and peer context. This module summarizes sentiment around ProShares UltraShort using options and short interest metrics.
ProShares UltraShort Implied Volatility
    
  0.96  
When ProShares UltraShort's implied volatility is unusually high relative to its historical average, options premiums are inflated. Sophisticated investors may choose to sell options in this environment to collect elevated premium income.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of ProShares UltraShort Gold on the next trading day is expected to be 18.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.78 and the sum of the absolute errors of 46.06.
ProShares UltraShort after-hype prediction price
    
  $ 18.03  
This module presents attention signals alongside forecasting, technical analysis, analyst consensus, and earnings.
Cross-verify projections for ProShares UltraShort using Historical Fundamental Analysis of ProShares UltraShort. The view provides historical context for the projection set.

Rule 16 Summary for current ProShares contract

Using the Rule 16 heuristic, the current implied volatility suggests an average daily move of about 6.0% for the 2026-04-17 options. At a recent price around $ 18.03, the implied daily move is approximately $ 1.08 , which is informational only.

Open Interest Map for ProShares Options 2026-04-17

Outstanding option contracts for ProShares UltraShort are summarized through open interest, which highlights market participation.

ProShares UltraShort Additional Predictive Modules

Forecasting ProShares UltraShort's price movement relies on structured analysis of indicator behavior, momentum signatures, and historical volatility patterns. Predictive accuracy varies by market regime - trending markets and range-bound markets favor different model types.
A two period moving average forecast for ProShares UltraShort is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility.

Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 18th of March 2026

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of ProShares UltraShort Gold on the next trading day is expected to be 18.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.78 , mean absolute percentage error of 1.08 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 46.06 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ProShares Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ProShares UltraShort's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Etf Forecast Pattern

Backtest ProShares UltraShort  ProShares UltraShort Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Forecasted Value

Forecasting ProShares UltraShort Gold for the next session involves measuring the model's historical ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios. At the moment, the model places downside around 13.23 and upside around 22.83 for the forecasting period.
Market Value
18.03
18.03
Expected Value
22.83
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ProShares UltraShort etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ProShares UltraShort etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.5163
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.199
MADMean absolute deviation0.7807
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0393
SAESum of the absolute errors46.06
The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of ProShares UltraShort Gold price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of ProShares UltraShort. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future
The mean reversion effect in ProShares UltraShort is stronger when the initial deviation was driven by sentiment rather than fundamental change. Identifying the root cause of ProShares UltraShort's price dislocation is essential before acting.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
13.2618.0322.80
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
12.4717.2422.01
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
15.9917.5119.04
Details
Competitive positioning is a critical dimension of ProShares UltraShort analysis. Understanding where ProShares UltraShort Gold stands relative to its peers on returns, growth, and valuation helps investors assess whether its advantage is sustainable.

After-Hype Price Density Analysis

The probability distribution for ProShares UltraShort's predicted price encodes the full spectrum of outcomes, weighted by their estimated likelihood. Investors should compare this range against their personal risk tolerance before committing to ProShares UltraShort positions.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

The news prediction model for ProShares UltraShort analyzes the correlation between ProShares UltraShort's historical headline events and same-day or next-day price movements. ProShares UltraShort's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 13.26 and 22.80, respectively. Predictive accuracy varies significantly across different news categories and market regimes for ProShares UltraShort.
Current Value
18.03
18.03
After-hype Price
22.80
Upside
Macroaxis estimates the after-hype price of ProShares UltraShort Gold across a 3 months horizon to evaluate where the instrument could settle once headline distortion subsides. This view is most useful when investors want to compare sentiment-driven price extension with a more measured post-news scenario.

Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as ProShares UltraShort is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading ProShares UltraShort backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with ProShares UltraShort, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.48 
4.80
  0.26 
  0.25 
1 Events
2 Events
Very soon
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
18.03
18.03
0.00 
872.73  
Notes

Hype Timeline

On the 17th of March 2026 ProShares UltraShort Gold is traded for 18.03. The ETF has historical hype elasticity of 0.26, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.25. ProShares is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.48%. %. The volatility of related hype on ProShares UltraShort is about 905.66%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 17.78. The ETF had not issued any dividends in recent years. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be very soon.
Cross-verify projections for ProShares UltraShort using Historical Fundamental Analysis of ProShares UltraShort. The view provides historical context for the projection set.

Related Hype Analysis

Sector-wide news events often affect ProShares UltraShort before the fundamental impact on ProShares UltraShort's own business becomes clear. Peer hype analysis helps investors distinguish between sector-level sentiment shifts and ProShares UltraShort-specific developments.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
TSLSDirexion Shares ETF 0.00 0 per month 2.09 0.09 3.72 -3.50 9.25
JDSTDirexion Daily Junior-1.17 1 per month 0.00 -0.08 14.21 -11.93 40.63
MIDUDirexion Daily Mid-1.34 2 per month 2.86 0.03 4.40 -5.11 16.53
LABDDirexion Daily SAMPP-0.77 1 per month 0.00 -0.02 7.08 -7.99 22.81
BITIProShares Trust -0.14 8 per month 3.37 0.09 5.69 -5.33 22.98
SARKTuttle Capital Short-0.28 1 per month 2.22 0.07 3.16 -2.92 11.69
SHNYMicrosectors Gold 3x-1.64 1 per month 8.11 0.12 8.94 -12.02 42.18
ELDWisdomTree Emerging Markets 0.02 6 per month 0.00  0.01 0.71 -1.16 2.65
MAYWAIM ETF Products 0.00 0 per month 0.08 0.24 0.30 -0.30 0.74
MARWAllianzim Large Cap 0.02 1 per month 0.23 0.13 0.32 -0.37 1.16

Other Forecasting Options for ProShares UltraShort

For both new and experienced investors in ProShares, the ability to analyze ProShares UltraShort's price movement is a fundamental investment skill. Price chart noise in ProShares Etf can create false signals and mislead investment decisions.

ProShares UltraShort Related Equities

The following equities are related to ProShares UltraShort within the Trading--Inverse Commodities space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing ProShares UltraShort against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

ProShares UltraShort Market Strength Events

Tracking market strength indicators for ProShares UltraShort helps investors understand the momentum dynamics of the etf in real time. These signals support informed decisions about when to enter or exit positions in ProShares UltraShort Gold for maximum return potential.

ProShares UltraShort Risk Indicators

Properly assessing ProShares UltraShort's risk indicators is a prerequisite for building reliable price forecasts. Identifying and quantifying the risks associated with ProShares UltraShort's allows investors to make better-informed decisions about accepting or hedging their exposure.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for ProShares UltraShort

Coverage intensity for ProShares UltraShort Gold matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. A disciplined read of coverage helps investors separate durable relevance from temporary noise.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Macroaxis publishes story content for a diverse readership that includes finance students, independent investors, money managers, and market-focused operating teams. What connects that audience is a focus on building stronger portfolios through better research, risk awareness, and comparative analysis.

More Resources for ProShares Etf Analysis

Understanding ProShares UltraShort Gold typically begins with financial statements and long-term trend review. ProShares UltraShort's financial ratios translate raw accounting data into comparable profitability and efficiency signals. Selected reports below provide context for ProShares Etf:
Cross-verify projections for ProShares UltraShort using Historical Fundamental Analysis of ProShares UltraShort. The view provides historical context for the projection set.
ProShares UltraShort information on this page supports broader research rather than acting as a stand-alone signal. The supplemental views below help investors decide how ProShares UltraShort complements or overlaps with existing portfolio holdings. You can also try the Funds Screener module to find actively-traded funds from around the world traded on over 30 global exchanges.
Understanding ProShares UltraShort Gold includes distinguishing between market value and book value, where book value reflects ProShares's accounting equity. Intrinsic value represents an estimate of underlying worth and can differ from both market price and book value. Valuation methods compare these perspectives to frame context.
Value and price for ProShares UltraShort are related but not identical, and they can diverge across cycles. Evaluation typically reviews profitability, growth, balance sheet strength, industry position, and market signals. Where ProShares UltraShort trades at any moment depends on the balance of buying and selling pressure.