Great Lakes Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| GLDD Stock | USD 15.41 0.34 2.16% |
Great Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Great Lakes stock prices and determine the direction of Great Lakes Dredge's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Great Lakes' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength momentum indicator of Great Lakes' stock price is about 65. This usually indicates that the stock is rather overbought by investors at the present time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Great, making its price go up or down. Momentum 65
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.2225 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.1 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.11 | Wall Street Target Price 17 |
Using Great Lakes hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Great Lakes Dredge from the perspective of Great Lakes response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Great Lakes using Great Lakes' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Great using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Great Lakes' stock price.
Great Lakes Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Great Lakes' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Great. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Great Lakes stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 11.7207 | Short Percent 0.027 | Short Ratio 3.79 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.6 M | 50 Day MA 13.3024 |
Great Relative Strength Index
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Great Lakes Dredge on the next trading day is expected to be 15.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29 and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.13.Great Lakes Dredge Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Great Lakes' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Great. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Great can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Great Lakes Dredge. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Great Lakes' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Great Lakes.
Great Lakes Implied Volatility | 0.98 |
Great Lakes' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Great Lakes Dredge stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Great Lakes' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Great Lakes stock will not fluctuate a lot when Great Lakes' options are near their expiration.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Great Lakes Dredge on the next trading day is expected to be 15.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29 and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.13. Great Lakes after-hype prediction price | USD 15.41 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Great Lakes to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Great contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Great Lakes Dredge will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0613% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Great Lakes trading at USD 15.41, that is roughly USD 0.009439 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Great Lakes' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Great Lakes Dredge options at the current volatility level of 0.98%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Great Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Great Lakes' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Great Lakes' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Great Lakes stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Great Lakes' open interest, investors have to compare it to Great Lakes' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Great Lakes is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Great. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Great Lakes Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Great price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Great using various technical indicators. When you analyze Great charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Great Lakes Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Great Lakes Dredge on the next trading day is expected to be 15.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29, mean absolute percentage error of 0.17, and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.13.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Great Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Great Lakes' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Great Lakes Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Great Lakes | Great Lakes Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Great Lakes Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Great Lakes' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Great Lakes' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 12.71 and 18.53, respectively. We have considered Great Lakes' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Great Lakes stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Great Lakes stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.045 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2904 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.022 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 17.1318 |
Predictive Modules for Great Lakes
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Great Lakes Dredge. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Great Lakes' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Great Lakes After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Great Lakes at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Great Lakes or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Great Lakes, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Great Lakes Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Great Lakes' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Great Lakes' historical news coverage. Great Lakes' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 12.52 and 18.30, respectively. We have considered Great Lakes' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Great Lakes is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Great Lakes Dredge is based on 3 months time horizon.
Great Lakes Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Great Lakes is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Great Lakes backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Great Lakes, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.60 | 2.91 | 1.13 | 0.07 | 18 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 18 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
15.41 | 15.41 | 0.00 |
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Great Lakes Hype Timeline
Great Lakes Dredge is currently traded for 15.41. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -1.13, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.07. Great is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 153.97%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.6%. %. The volatility of related hype on Great Lakes is about 2530.43%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 15.48. About 83.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Great Lakes was currently reported as 7.53. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.02. Great Lakes Dredge last dividend was issued on the 19th of December 2012. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 18 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Great Lakes to cross-verify your projections.Great Lakes Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Great Lakes' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Great Lakes' future price movements. Getting to know how Great Lakes' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Great Lakes may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BWMN | Bowman Consulting Group | 1.89 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.35 | (5.57) | 26.93 | |
| APOG | Apogee Enterprises | 2.15 | 29 per month | 3.04 | (0) | 4.04 | (3.14) | 17.93 | |
| NPK | National Presto Industries | (1.89) | 4 per month | 2.04 | 0.04 | 2.80 | (2.71) | 10.34 | |
| CRESY | Cresud SACIF y | (0.18) | 6 per month | 1.67 | 0.13 | 4.93 | (3.64) | 30.85 | |
| SKYH | Sky Harbour Group | (0.19) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.60 | (3.32) | 12.01 | |
| WLFC | Willis Lease Finance | (1.89) | 11 per month | 2.20 | 0.18 | 5.67 | (3.93) | 11.05 | |
| VLRS | Volaris | (0.08) | 5 per month | 2.17 | 0.14 | 6.58 | (4.72) | 19.39 | |
| SNCY | Sun Country Airlines | 0.02 | 7 per month | 1.94 | 0.19 | 6.22 | (4.25) | 13.97 | |
| SERV | Serve Robotics Common | 1.38 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 10.62 | (9.56) | 28.21 | |
| NAT | Nordic American Tankers | (0.06) | 18 per month | 1.37 | 0.11 | 3.18 | (2.31) | 10.94 |
Other Forecasting Options for Great Lakes
For every potential investor in Great, whether a beginner or expert, Great Lakes' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Great Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Great. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Great Lakes' price trends.Great Lakes Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Great Lakes stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Great Lakes could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Great Lakes by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Great Lakes Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Great Lakes stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Great Lakes shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Great Lakes stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Great Lakes Dredge entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Great Lakes Risk Indicators
The analysis of Great Lakes' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Great Lakes' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting great stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.87 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.39 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.84 | |||
| Variance | 8.07 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.86 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.93 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.41) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Great Lakes
The number of cover stories for Great Lakes depends on current market conditions and Great Lakes' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Great Lakes is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Great Lakes' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Great Lakes Short Properties
Great Lakes' future price predictability will typically decrease when Great Lakes' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Great Lakes Dredge often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Great Lakes' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Great Lakes' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 67.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 10.2 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Great Lakes to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Stock Tickers module to use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites.
Is Construction & Engineering space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Great Lakes. If investors know Great will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Great Lakes listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1 | Earnings Share 1.19 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.021 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Great Lakes Dredge is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Great that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Great Lakes' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Great Lakes' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Great Lakes' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Great Lakes' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Great Lakes' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Great Lakes is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Great Lakes' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.