GOLDMAN SACHS Mutual Fund Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| GEMAX Fund | USD 30.64 0.20 0.66% |
This reference page presents Double Exponential Smoothing forecast data for Goldman Sachs Emerging. The model output shown here is derived from GOLDMAN SACHS's historical price series and is provided for informational purposes.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Goldman Sachs Emerging on the next trading day is expected to be 30.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.30 and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.62.When Goldman Sachs Emerging prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Goldman Sachs Emerging trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent GOLDMAN SACHS observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. This Double Exponential Smoothing forecast data for Goldman Sachs Emerging is sourced from the most recent available trading data and is intended solely as reference information. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 20th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Goldman Sachs Emerging on the next trading day is expected to be 30.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.30 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.19 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.62 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict GOLDMAN Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that GOLDMAN SACHS's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for Goldman Sachs Emerging focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of GOLDMAN SACHS mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent GOLDMAN SACHS mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0691 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2986 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0097 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 17.6203 |
Other Forecasting Options for GOLDMAN SACHS
For every potential investor in GOLDMAN, whether a beginner or expert, GOLDMAN SACHS's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better.GOLDMAN SACHS Related Equities
The following equities are related to GOLDMAN SACHS within the Diversified Emerging Mkts space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing GOLDMAN SACHS against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
GOLDMAN SACHS Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how GOLDMAN SACHS mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading GOLDMAN SACHS shares will generate the highest return on.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 30.64 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 30.64 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.1 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.2 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 51.59 |
GOLDMAN SACHS Risk Indicators
The analysis of GOLDMAN SACHS's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in GOLDMAN SACHS's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8984 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.41 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.32 | |||
| Variance | 1.74 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.68 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.0 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.87 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for GOLDMAN SACHS
A coverage review of Goldman Sachs Emerging helps investors see when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
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