Genesis Energy Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| GEL Stock | USD 16.68 0.63 3.64% |
Genesis Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Genesis Energy's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Genesis Energy's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Genesis Energy fundamentals over time.
As of now, The value of relative strength index of Genesis Energy's share price is at 53. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Genesis Energy, making its price go up or down. Momentum 53
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.586 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.3 | EPS Estimate Current Year (3.48) | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.21 | Wall Street Target Price 19.3333 |
Using Genesis Energy hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Genesis Energy LP from the perspective of Genesis Energy response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Genesis Energy using Genesis Energy's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Genesis using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Genesis Energy's stock price.
Genesis Energy Short Interest
An investor who is long Genesis Energy may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Genesis Energy and may potentially protect profits, hedge Genesis Energy with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 16.0216 | Short Percent 0.07 | Short Ratio 18.04 | Shares Short Prior Month 5.1 M | 50 Day MA 15.9152 |
Genesis Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Genesis Energy LP on the next trading day is expected to be 16.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27 and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.06.Genesis Energy LP Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Genesis Energy's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Genesis. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Genesis can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Genesis Energy LP. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Genesis Energy's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Genesis Energy.
Genesis Energy Implied Volatility | 0.93 |
Genesis Energy's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Genesis Energy LP stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Genesis Energy's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Genesis Energy stock will not fluctuate a lot when Genesis Energy's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Genesis Energy LP on the next trading day is expected to be 16.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27 and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.06. Genesis Energy after-hype prediction price | USD 16.64 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Genesis Energy to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Genesis contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Genesis Energy LP will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0581% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Genesis Energy trading at USD 16.68, that is roughly USD 0.009695 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Genesis Energy's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Genesis Energy LP options at the current volatility level of 0.93%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Genesis Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Genesis Energy's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Genesis Energy's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Genesis Energy stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Genesis Energy's open interest, investors have to compare it to Genesis Energy's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Genesis Energy is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Genesis. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Genesis Energy Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Genesis price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Genesis using various technical indicators. When you analyze Genesis charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Genesis Energy Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 31st of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Genesis Energy LP on the next trading day is expected to be 16.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27, mean absolute percentage error of 0.10, and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.06.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Genesis Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Genesis Energy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Genesis Energy Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Genesis Energy | Genesis Energy Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Genesis Energy Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Genesis Energy's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Genesis Energy's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 14.76 and 18.78, respectively. We have considered Genesis Energy's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Genesis Energy stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Genesis Energy stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.9763 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0141 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2676 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0168 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 16.0575 |
Predictive Modules for Genesis Energy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Genesis Energy LP. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Genesis Energy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Genesis Energy After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Genesis Energy at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Genesis Energy or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Genesis Energy, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Genesis Energy Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Genesis Energy's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Genesis Energy's historical news coverage. Genesis Energy's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 14.63 and 18.65, respectively. We have considered Genesis Energy's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Genesis Energy is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Genesis Energy LP is based on 3 months time horizon.
Genesis Energy Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Genesis Energy is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Genesis Energy backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Genesis Energy, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.08 | 2.01 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 10 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
16.68 | 16.64 | 0.24 |
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Genesis Energy Hype Timeline
On the 30th of January Genesis Energy LP is traded for 16.68. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.03. Genesis is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 16.64. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.24%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.08%. The volatility of related hype on Genesis Energy is about 474.06%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 16.71. About 13.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company recorded a loss per share of 1.31. Genesis Energy LP last dividend was issued on the 30th of January 2026. The entity had 10:11 split on the 4th of April 2013. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Genesis Energy to cross-verify your projections.Genesis Energy Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Genesis Energy's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Genesis Energy's future price movements. Getting to know how Genesis Energy's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Genesis Energy may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TNK | Teekay Tankers | 3.50 | 9 per month | 1.71 | 0.05 | 2.94 | (2.68) | 12.96 | |
| DHT | DHT Holdings | 0.27 | 10 per month | 1.35 | 0.08 | 3.00 | (2.35) | 12.28 | |
| TRMD | Torm PLC Class | (0.02) | 8 per month | 1.29 | 0.10 | 4.36 | (2.28) | 10.37 | |
| TALO | Talos Energy | (0.03) | 7 per month | 2.19 | 0.12 | 4.53 | (3.60) | 11.38 | |
| SDRL | Seadrill Limited | 1.06 | 10 per month | 2.25 | 0.1 | 4.85 | (3.85) | 14.86 | |
| CSAN | Cosan SA ADR | (0.23) | 8 per month | 3.19 | 0.01 | 5.52 | (6.29) | 18.30 | |
| DKL | Delek Logistics Partners | (0.42) | 11 per month | 1.19 | 0.12 | 2.42 | (1.69) | 10.05 | |
| BKV | BKV Corporation | (0.67) | 12 per month | 2.14 | 0.19 | 5.14 | (3.24) | 19.36 | |
| CLMT | Calumet Specialty Products | 0.85 | 11 per month | 1.44 | 0.07 | 2.75 | (2.44) | 6.76 | |
| NOG | Northern Oil Gas | (0.07) | 7 per month | 2.34 | 0.08 | 5.26 | (3.89) | 10.76 |
Other Forecasting Options for Genesis Energy
For every potential investor in Genesis, whether a beginner or expert, Genesis Energy's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Genesis Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Genesis. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Genesis Energy's price trends.Genesis Energy Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Genesis Energy stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Genesis Energy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Genesis Energy by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Genesis Energy Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Genesis Energy stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Genesis Energy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Genesis Energy stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Genesis Energy LP entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.96 | |||
| Day Median Price | 16.68 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 16.68 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.31) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.63) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 53.14 |
Genesis Energy Risk Indicators
The analysis of Genesis Energy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Genesis Energy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting genesis stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.65 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.65 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.99 | |||
| Variance | 3.95 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.09 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.73 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.87) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Genesis Energy
The number of cover stories for Genesis Energy depends on current market conditions and Genesis Energy's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Genesis Energy is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Genesis Energy's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Genesis Energy Short Properties
Genesis Energy's future price predictability will typically decrease when Genesis Energy's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Genesis Energy LP often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Genesis Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Genesis Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 122.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 10.7 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Genesis Energy to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Aroon Oscillator module to analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios.
Is Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Genesis Energy. Market participants price Genesis higher when confident in its future expansion prospects. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Genesis Energy assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.586 | Dividend Share 0.66 | Earnings Share (1.31) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.042 |
Investors evaluate Genesis Energy LP using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Genesis Energy's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Genesis Energy's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Genesis Energy's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Genesis Energy is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Conversely, Genesis Energy's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.