GOLDMAN SACHS Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| GDUSX Fund | USD 10.38 -0.01 -0.1% |
The Simple Moving Average forecast shown here for GOLDMAN SACHS is reference data produced from its historical price series. The projected value and error measures below serve as reference information.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Goldman Sachs Short on the next trading day is expected to be 10.38 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.44.The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Goldman Sachs Short price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of GOLDMAN SACHS. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future This Simple Moving Average reference page for GOLDMAN SACHS presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes. Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 28th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Goldman Sachs Short on the next trading day is expected to be 10.38 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.0001 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.44 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict GOLDMAN Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that GOLDMAN SACHS's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Goldman Sachs Short uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. At the moment, the model places downside around 10.28 and upside around 10.48 for the forecasting period.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of GOLDMAN SACHS mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent GOLDMAN SACHS mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 107.4281 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.001 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0073 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 7.0E-4 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.44 |
Other Forecasting Options for GOLDMAN SACHS
The distribution of GOLDMAN SACHS's daily returns is typically non-normal, with fatter tails than a Gaussian model predicts. This can reveal hidden support and resistance zones in GOLDMAN SACHS's chart that simple price charts miss.GOLDMAN SACHS Related Equities
These stocks within the Muni National Short space are often compared to GOLDMAN SACHS by analysts and fund managers in the sector. Growth rate gaps between GOLDMAN SACHS and its peers often explain pricing differences in the market.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
GOLDMAN SACHS Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for GOLDMAN SACHS give insight into the mutual fund's responsiveness to broader forces. These indicators are useful for traders seeking optimal timing for positions in Goldman Sachs Short.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 10.38 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 10.38 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.01 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.01 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 36.74 |
GOLDMAN SACHS Risk Indicators
A thorough review of GOLDMAN SACHS's risk indicators is an important first step in forecasting its price. Quantifying the risk involved in GOLDMAN SACHS's allows investors to make better decisions about entry, sizing, and hedging.
| Mean Deviation | 0.0532 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.0966 | |||
| Variance | 0.0093 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.0175 | |||
| Semi Variance | -0.0024 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.15 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for GOLDMAN SACHS
Coverage intensity for Goldman Sachs Short matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
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