THE GABELLI Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| GAUAX Fund | USD 5.46 0.04 0.74% |
Momentum
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
The hype-based view summarizes THE GABELLI's price response to recent headlines and peer coverage.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of The Gabelli Utilities on the next trading day is expected to be 5.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.72.THE GABELLI after-hype prediction price | $ 5.46 |
Attention metrics here are presented with forecasting, technical, analyst, and earnings context.
THE |
THE GABELLI Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine THE price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for THE using various technical indicators. When you analyze THE charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 17th of March 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of The Gabelli Utilities on the next trading day is expected to be 5.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.0012 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.72 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict THE Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that THE GABELLI's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest THE GABELLI | THE GABELLI Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates THE GABELLI's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of THE GABELLI mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent THE GABELLI mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 109.5582 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0093 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0287 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0055 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.72 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of THE GABELLI's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion.
After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of THE GABELLI at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting THE GABELLI's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on THE GABELLI's historical news coverage.
Current Value
The after-hype framework applied to The Gabelli Utilities assumes a 3 months review window and focuses on post-sentiment normalization rather than raw momentum. THE GABELLI is Very Low at this time.
Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as THE GABELLI is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading THE GABELLI backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with THE GABELLI, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.18 | 0.64 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0 Events | 1 Events | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
5.46 | 5.46 | 0.00 |
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Hype Timeline
Gabelli Utilities is currently traded for 5.46. The fund stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.15. THE is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.18%. %. The volatility of related hype on THE GABELLI is about 77.11%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 5.31. The fund has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.84. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Assuming a 90-day horizon the next forecasted press release will be in a few days. Cross-verify projections for THE GABELLI using Historical Fundamental Analysis of THE GABELLI. The analysis adds historical context for the projection set.Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to THE GABELLI's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict THE GABELLI's future price movements. Getting to know how THE GABELLI's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BOSVX | Omni Small Cap Value | 0.11 | 1 per month | 0.97 | 0.10 | 2.14 | -1.86 | 6.06 | |
| PCSVX | Pace Smallmedium Value | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.88 | 0.10 | 2.27 | -1.79 | 4.58 | |
| AVCNX | American Century Etf | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.99 | 0.09 | 1.79 | -1.63 | 5.40 | |
| QRSAX | Fpa Queens Road | -0.20 | 3 per month | 0.65 | 0.16 | 1.80 | -1.29 | 5.31 | |
| SCYVX | Ab Small Cap | 15.76 | 4 per month | 0.85 | 0.16 | 2.27 | -1.61 | 5.57 | |
| PSVIX | Allianzgi Nfj Small Cap | -0.06 | 1 per month | 0.94 | 0.12 | 1.72 | -1.84 | 5.20 | |
| LRSOX | Lord Abbett Small | -21.42 | 2 per month | 0.99 | 0.08 | 2.25 | -2.05 | 7.25 |
Other Forecasting Options for THE GABELLI
For every potential investor in THE, whether a beginner or expert, THE GABELLI's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better.THE GABELLI Related Equities
The following equities are related to THE GABELLI within the Utilities space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing THE GABELLI against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
THE GABELLI Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how THE GABELLI mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading THE GABELLI shares will generate the highest return on.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 5.46 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 5.46 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.02 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.04 |
THE GABELLI Risk Indicators
The analysis of THE GABELLI's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in THE GABELLI's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it.
| Mean Deviation | 0.4957 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.3951 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.633 | |||
| Variance | 0.4007 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.381 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.1561 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.58 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for THE GABELLI
The amount of media and story coverage tied to The Gabelli Utilities can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
Other Macroaxis Stories
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