Gladstone Investment Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| GAIN Stock | USD 13.97 -0.05 -0.36% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast shown here for Gladstone Investment is reference data produced from the equity's historical price series. Accuracy metrics including mean absolute deviation are provided alongside the projection.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Gladstone Investment on the next trading day is expected to be 13.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.10 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.00.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Gladstone Investment observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Gladstone Investment observations. This Triple Exponential Smoothing reference page for Gladstone Investment presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes. Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 19th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Gladstone Investment on the next trading day is expected to be 13.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.10 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.02 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.00 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Gladstone Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Gladstone Investment's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Gladstone Investment | Gladstone Investment Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Gladstone Investment uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 13.01 on the downside to about 14.97 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Gladstone Investment stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Gladstone Investment stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.02 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1017 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0074 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 6.0015 |
Other Forecasting Options for Gladstone Investment
Regardless of investment experience, understanding Gladstone Investment's price movement is essential for anyone considering a position in Gladstone. Price charts for Gladstone Stock are often filled with noise that can lead to poor investment choices if not properly filtered.Gladstone Investment Related Equities
The following equities are related to Gladstone Investment within the Financials space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Gladstone Investment against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Gladstone Investment Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Gladstone Investment give investors insight into the stock's responsiveness to broader market forces. Tracking these indicators helps investors make informed timing decisions and identify periods where trading Gladstone Investment is likely to be most rewarding.
Gladstone Investment Risk Indicators
A thorough review of Gladstone Investment's risk indicators is an important first step in forecasting its price and managing investment exposure. This analysis helps investors determine the appropriate level of risk to accept when holding Gladstone Investment's.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7298 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.8324 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.9448 | |||
| Variance | 0.8926 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.7452 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.6929 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.81 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Gladstone Investment
Coverage intensity for Gladstone Investment matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
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Gladstone Investment Short Properties
Reviewing short-oriented indicators for Gladstone Investment is useful because long and short participants often create very different signals for timing and volatility. A disciplined short-interest review can make timing decisions more informed under rising skepticism.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 36.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 14.3 M |