FIDELITY ADVISOR Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| FZAMX Fund | USD 25.67 0.54 2.15% |
This page provides Simple Moving Average reference data for Fidelity Advisor Mid, calculated from historical daily prices. The model output shown here is derived from FIDELITY ADVISOR's historical price series and is provided for informational purposes.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Fidelity Advisor Mid on the next trading day is expected to be 25.67 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27 and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.06.The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Fidelity Advisor Mid price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of FIDELITY ADVISOR. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future The Simple Moving Average reference information for FIDELITY ADVISOR is based on available price data and is intended for informational purposes. Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 25th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Fidelity Advisor Mid on the next trading day is expected to be 25.67 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.12 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.06 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict FIDELITY Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that FIDELITY ADVISOR's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates FIDELITY ADVISOR's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. At the moment, the model places downside around 24.39 and upside around 26.95 for the forecasting period.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of FIDELITY ADVISOR mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent FIDELITY ADVISOR mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.1407 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0155 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2677 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0103 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 16.06 |
Other Forecasting Options for FIDELITY ADVISOR
The autocorrelation structure of FIDELITY ADVISOR's daily returns reveals whether FIDELITY exhibits momentum, mean-reversion, or random-walk behavior. Separating these elements helps distinguish persistent directional moves from temporary noise in FIDELITY Mutual Fund price data.FIDELITY ADVISOR Related Equities
These stocks within the Mid-Cap Blend space are often compared to FIDELITY ADVISOR by analysts and fund managers in the sector. Checking FIDELITY ADVISOR against peers on P/E, margins, and return on equity helps put its position in context.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
FIDELITY ADVISOR Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators applied to FIDELITY ADVISOR mutual fund help assess momentum and resilience across environments. These indicators support informed market timing decisions when analyzing FIDELITY ADVISOR.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.02 | |||
| Day Median Price | 25.67 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 25.67 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.27 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.54 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 47.34 |
FIDELITY ADVISOR Risk Indicators
Risk indicator analysis for FIDELITY ADVISOR is essential for accurately projecting its future price trajectory. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in FIDELITY ADVISOR's investment and either accepting or mitigating it.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9399 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.23 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.25 | |||
| Variance | 1.56 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.82 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.52 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.93 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for FIDELITY ADVISOR
A coverage review of Fidelity Advisor Mid shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.
Other Macroaxis Stories
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