Fortuna Silver Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| FVI Stock | CAD 15.73 0.24 1.50% |
Fortuna Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Fortuna Silver's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Fortuna Silver's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Fortuna Silver fundamentals over time.
The relative strength momentum indicator of Fortuna Silver's stock price is about 67. This usually indicates that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of today. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Fortuna, making its price go up or down. Momentum 67
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.352 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.2748 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.7664 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.3463 | Wall Street Target Price 14.4279 |
Using Fortuna Silver hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Fortuna Silver Mines from the perspective of Fortuna Silver response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Fortuna Silver Mines on the next trading day is expected to be 15.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.35 and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.90. Fortuna Silver after-hype prediction price | CAD 15.73 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Fortuna |
Fortuna Silver Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Fortuna price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Fortuna using various technical indicators. When you analyze Fortuna charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Fortuna Silver Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Fortuna Silver Mines on the next trading day is expected to be 15.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.35, mean absolute percentage error of 0.21, and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.90.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Fortuna Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Fortuna Silver's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Fortuna Silver Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Fortuna Silver | Fortuna Silver Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Fortuna Silver Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Fortuna Silver's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Fortuna Silver's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 13.30 and 18.50, respectively. We have considered Fortuna Silver's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Fortuna Silver stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Fortuna Silver stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.4004 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3533 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0274 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 21.9023 |
Predictive Modules for Fortuna Silver
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fortuna Silver Mines. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Fortuna Silver After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Fortuna Silver at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Fortuna Silver or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Fortuna Silver, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Fortuna Silver Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Fortuna Silver's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Fortuna Silver's historical news coverage. Fortuna Silver's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 13.14 and 18.32, respectively. We have considered Fortuna Silver's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Fortuna Silver is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Fortuna Silver Mines is based on 3 months time horizon.
Fortuna Silver Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Fortuna Silver is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Fortuna Silver backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Fortuna Silver, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.59 | 2.60 | 0.01 | 0.10 | 15 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 15 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
15.73 | 15.73 | 0.00 |
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Fortuna Silver Hype Timeline
Fortuna Silver Mines is currently traded for 15.73on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.1. Fortuna is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.59%. %. The volatility of related hype on Fortuna Silver is about 1575.76%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 15.63. About 79.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Fortuna Silver was currently reported as 7.23. The company last dividend was issued on the December 21, 2010. Fortuna Silver Mines had 1:7 split on the 3rd of February 1999. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 15 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fortuna Silver to cross-verify your projections.Fortuna Silver Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Fortuna Silver's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Fortuna Silver's future price movements. Getting to know how Fortuna Silver's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Fortuna Silver may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MX | Methanex | 0.09 | 6 per month | 1.46 | 0.14 | 3.91 | (2.58) | 21.67 | |
| CG | Centerra Gold | (0.09) | 1 per month | 1.36 | 0.31 | 5.24 | (2.90) | 10.74 | |
| WDO | Wesdome Gold Mines | (0.52) | 6 per month | 2.37 | 0.07 | 3.95 | (4.21) | 14.33 | |
| USA | Americas Silver Corp | (0.42) | 10 per month | 3.22 | 0.26 | 8.70 | (5.74) | 18.10 | |
| ERO | Ero Copper Corp | 0.47 | 8 per month | 1.80 | 0.26 | 4.83 | (3.31) | 11.41 | |
| EDR | Endeavour Silver Corp | 0.43 | 10 per month | 2.69 | 0.19 | 9.39 | (4.52) | 17.42 | |
| PPTA | Perpetua Resources Corp | (1.56) | 7 per month | 3.44 | 0.12 | 7.44 | (6.85) | 20.41 | |
| SEA | Seabridge Gold | (0.09) | 2 per month | 2.77 | 0.15 | 5.83 | (4.86) | 14.93 | |
| DSV | Discovery Silver Corp | 0.13 | 7 per month | 2.62 | 0.29 | 9.97 | (4.95) | 22.07 | |
| SVM | Silvercorp Metals | (0.09) | 6 per month | 2.10 | 0.29 | 7.27 | (4.80) | 14.18 |
Other Forecasting Options for Fortuna Silver
For every potential investor in Fortuna, whether a beginner or expert, Fortuna Silver's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Fortuna Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Fortuna. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Fortuna Silver's price trends.Fortuna Silver Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Fortuna Silver stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Fortuna Silver could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Fortuna Silver by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Fortuna Silver Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Fortuna Silver stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Fortuna Silver shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Fortuna Silver stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Fortuna Silver Mines entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 197308.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.17) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 16.43 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 16.19 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.82) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.24) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 67.25 |
Fortuna Silver Risk Indicators
The analysis of Fortuna Silver's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Fortuna Silver's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting fortuna stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.98 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.56 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.54 | |||
| Variance | 6.47 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.74 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.43 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.41) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Fortuna Silver
The number of cover stories for Fortuna Silver depends on current market conditions and Fortuna Silver's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Fortuna Silver is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Fortuna Silver's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Fortuna Silver Short Properties
Fortuna Silver's future price predictability will typically decrease when Fortuna Silver's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Fortuna Silver Mines often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Fortuna Silver's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Fortuna Silver's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 314.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 231.3 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fortuna Silver to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Efficient Frontier module to plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market..