Fortescue Metals OTC Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| FSUMF Stock | USD 14.00 -0.48 -3.31% |
This page provides Double Exponential Smoothing reference data for Fortescue Metals Group, calculated from historical daily prices. The model output shown here is derived from Fortescue Metals's historical price series and is provided for informational purposes.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Fortescue Metals Group on the next trading day is expected to be 14.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.34 and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.97.When Fortescue Metals Group prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Fortescue Metals Group trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Fortescue Metals observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. The Double Exponential Smoothing reference information for Fortescue Metals is based on available price data and is intended for informational purposes. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Fortescue Metals Group on the next trading day is expected to be 14.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.34 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.17 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.97 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Fortescue OTC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Fortescue Metals' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
OTC Stock Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Fortescue Metals Group uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. The current forecast range spans downside near 10.94 and upside near 17.11.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Fortescue Metals otc stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Fortescue Metals otc stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0438 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3384 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0234 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 19.9659 |
Other Forecasting Options for Fortescue Metals
The autocorrelation structure of Fortescue Metals' daily returns reveals whether Fortescue exhibits momentum, mean-reversion, or random-walk behavior. Separating these elements helps distinguish persistent directional moves from temporary noise in Fortescue OTC Stock price data.View Fortescue Metals' Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Fortescue Metals Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators applied to Fortescue Metals otc stock help assess momentum and resilience across environments. These indicators support informed market timing decisions when analyzing Fortescue Metals.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.97 | |||
| Day Median Price | 14.0 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 14.0 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.24 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.48 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 50.66 |
Fortescue Metals Risk Indicators
Risk indicator analysis for Fortescue Metals is essential for accurately projecting its future price trajectory. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Fortescue Metals' investment and either accepting or mitigating it.
| Mean Deviation | 2.24 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.95 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.04 | |||
| Variance | 9.24 | |||
| Downside Variance | 13.06 | |||
| Semi Variance | 8.7 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -2.55 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Fortescue Metals
Coverage intensity for Fortescue Metals Group matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
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The ratio set for Fortescue Metals connects key financial figures across reports. These metrics link profitability, liquidity, and valuation signals.