Fastly Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| FSLY Stock | USD 10.28 0.50 5.11% |
Fastly Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The relative strength indicator of Fastly's share price is at 56. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Fastly, making its price go up or down. Momentum 56
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.0086 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.0551 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.1319 | Wall Street Target Price 10.9286 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 0.0002 |
Using Fastly hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Fastly Class A from the perspective of Fastly response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Fastly using Fastly's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Fastly using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Fastly's stock price.
Fastly Short Interest
An investor who is long Fastly may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Fastly and may potentially protect profits, hedge Fastly with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 8.1696 | Short Percent 0.0908 | Short Ratio 2.41 | Shares Short Prior Month 9.4 M | 50 Day MA 10.4719 |
Fastly Relative Strength Index
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Fastly Class A on the next trading day is expected to be 10.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.32 and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.86.Fastly Class A Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Fastly's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Fastly. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Fastly can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Fastly Class A. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Fastly's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Fastly.
Fastly Implied Volatility | 1.27 |
Fastly's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Fastly Class A stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Fastly's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Fastly stock will not fluctuate a lot when Fastly's options are near their expiration.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Fastly Class A on the next trading day is expected to be 10.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.32 and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.86. Fastly after-hype prediction price | USD 9.78 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fastly to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Fastly contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Fastly Class A will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0794% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Fastly trading at USD 10.28, that is roughly USD 0.00816 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Fastly's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Fastly Class A options at the current volatility level of 1.27%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Fastly Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Fastly's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Fastly's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Fastly stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Fastly's open interest, investors have to compare it to Fastly's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Fastly is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Fastly. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Fastly Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Fastly price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Fastly using various technical indicators. When you analyze Fastly charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Fastly Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Fastly Class A on the next trading day is expected to be 10.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.32, mean absolute percentage error of 0.27, and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.86.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Fastly Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Fastly's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Fastly Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Fastly | Fastly Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Fastly Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Fastly's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Fastly's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 4.55 and 15.93, respectively. We have considered Fastly's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Fastly stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Fastly stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.079 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3197 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0304 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 18.86 |
Predictive Modules for Fastly
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fastly Class A. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Fastly After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Fastly at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Fastly or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Fastly, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Fastly Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Fastly's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Fastly's historical news coverage. Fastly's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 4.13 and 15.43, respectively. We have considered Fastly's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Fastly is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Fastly Class A is based on 3 months time horizon.
Fastly Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Fastly is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Fastly backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Fastly, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.55 | 5.69 | 0.01 | 0.07 | 11 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
10.28 | 9.78 | 0.00 |
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Fastly Hype Timeline
Fastly Class A is currently traded for 10.28. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.07. Fastly is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.55%. %. The volatility of related hype on Fastly is about 4343.51%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 10.35. About 74.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.48. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Fastly Class A recorded a loss per share of 0.96. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fastly to cross-verify your projections.Fastly Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Fastly's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Fastly's future price movements. Getting to know how Fastly's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Fastly may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AMPL | Amplitude | 0.39 | 11 per month | 2.50 | 0 | 4.19 | (4.44) | 14.37 | |
| YALA | Yalla Group | 0.04 | 8 per month | 2.31 | (0.02) | 3.40 | (3.20) | 14.49 | |
| HKD | AMTD Digital | 0.01 | 9 per month | 5.16 | 0 | 5.51 | (8.72) | 93.20 | |
| TIXT | TELUS International | (0.09) | 23 per month | 0.92 | 0.06 | 2.41 | (1.78) | 17.91 | |
| UPBD | Upbound Group | (0.41) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 4.61 | (4.18) | 18.70 | |
| RZLV | Rezolve AI Limited | (0.56) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 14.04 | (9.73) | 51.01 | |
| PDFS | PDF Solutions | 0.60 | 9 per month | 2.54 | 0.08 | 4.24 | (4.68) | 10.85 | |
| UCTT | Ultra Clean Holdings | 1.41 | 9 per month | 3.37 | 0.15 | 7.86 | (6.23) | 15.82 | |
| PRO | PROS Holdings | (0.09) | 18 per month | 0.29 | 0.12 | 3.23 | (0.74) | 41.02 | |
| VMEO | Vimeo Inc | 0.01 | 8 per month | 0.00 | 0.14 | 3.00 | (0.39) | 61.43 |
Other Forecasting Options for Fastly
For every potential investor in Fastly, whether a beginner or expert, Fastly's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Fastly Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Fastly. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Fastly's price trends.Fastly Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Fastly stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Fastly could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Fastly by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Fastly Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Fastly stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Fastly shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Fastly stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Fastly Class A entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Fastly Risk Indicators
The analysis of Fastly's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Fastly's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting fastly stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.02 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.86 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.47 | |||
| Variance | 29.9 | |||
| Downside Variance | 9.56 | |||
| Semi Variance | 8.21 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.93) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Fastly
The number of cover stories for Fastly depends on current market conditions and Fastly's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Fastly is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Fastly's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Fastly Short Properties
Fastly's future price predictability will typically decrease when Fastly's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Fastly Class A often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Fastly's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Fastly's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 138.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 295.9 M |
Additional Tools for Fastly Stock Analysis
When running Fastly's price analysis, check to measure Fastly's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Fastly is operating at the current time. Most of Fastly's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Fastly's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Fastly's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Fastly to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.