American Funds Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Regression
| FPPPX Fund | USD 9.48 -0.02 -0.21% |
American Funds Preservation's Simple Regression reference page covers the model's projected value and error measures from recent price data. The forecast output and associated deviation metrics are shown for informational use.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of American Funds Preservation on the next trading day is expected to be 9.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.17.In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as American Funds Preservation historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data. All Simple Regression forecast figures shown for American Funds Preservation are reference data reflecting model output based on available historical prices. Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 24th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of American Funds Preservation on the next trading day is expected to be 9.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.0006 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.17 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict American Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that American Funds' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
Forecasting American Funds Preservation for the next session involves measuring the model's historical ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 9.44 on the downside to about 9.65 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of American Funds mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent American Funds mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 110.7489 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0192 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.002 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.1726 |
Other Forecasting Options for American Funds
Bollinger Bands applied to American Mutual Fund price data measure how far American has deviated from its recent average relative to its own volatility. This distinction drives the choice of forecasting model applied to American Funds' price data.American Funds Related Equities
The peer firms below within the Short-Term Bond space can help frame American Funds' pricing and running costs in context. Growth rate gaps between American Funds and its peers often explain pricing differences in the market. A stock that beats its peers on many metrics often deserves a closer look from value-focused investors.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
American Funds Market Strength Events
For investors tracking American Funds Preservation, market strength indicators offer quantitative evaluation of mutual fund behavior. By using these indicators, traders can make more informed decisions about when to buy or sell American Funds Preservation.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 9.48 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 9.48 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.01 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.02 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 38.68 |
American Funds Risk Indicators
Analyzing American Funds' basic risk indicators provides investors with a structured view of the risk-return trade-off for american mutual fund. By identifying the level of risk embedded in American Funds' investment, investors can make informed decisions about position sizing.
| Mean Deviation | 0.0732 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.0922 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.1041 | |||
| Variance | 0.0108 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.0226 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.0085 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.12 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for American Funds
A coverage review of American Funds Preservation shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis story coverage is designed for a broad investing audience that ranges from self-directed traders to advisers, researchers, and institutional market participants. The content is intended to support people who want a more structured path from headline information to portfolio action.