Forestar Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| FOR Stock | USD 24.29 -0.43 -1.74% |
The forecast reference data for Forestar on this page is generated using Simple Moving Average applied to historical price observations. Projected values and error measures are included as reference material.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Forestar Group on the next trading day is expected to be 24.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.56 and the sum of the absolute errors of 32.93.The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Forestar Group price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Forestar. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future The Simple Moving Average reference values for Forestar are derived from publicly available price data and should be used for informational purposes only. Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 23rd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Forestar Group on the next trading day is expected to be 24.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.56 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.53 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 32.93 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Forestar Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Forestar's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Forestar | Forestar Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Forestar Group uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 22.09 on the downside to about 26.49 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Forestar stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Forestar stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.7981 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0046 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5581 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0209 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 32.93 |
Other Forecasting Options for Forestar
Investors at all stages of experience who consider Forestar must develop an understanding of Forestar's price dynamics. The noise embedded in Forestar Stock price charts can create misleading signals and skew investment decisions.Forestar Related Equities
The following equities are related to Forestar within the Real Estate space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Forestar against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Forestar Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators applied to Forestar stock give investors a structured view of the security's momentum relative to the overall market. Using these indicators, traders can refine their timing when entering or exiting positions in Forestar Group.
Forestar Risk Indicators
Evaluating Forestar's risk indicators is an important step in accurately forecasting its price and assessing the suitability of an investment. Understanding the risk profile of Forestar's allows investors to make more informed decisions about position sizing and risk.
| Mean Deviation | 1.72 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.28 | |||
| Variance | 5.22 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Forestar
Coverage intensity for Forestar Group matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
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Forestar Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to Forestar Group matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. The stronger read compares short sentiment with trend behavior, volume, and the broader market narrative.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 50.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 379.2 M |
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