First Bancorp Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| FNLC Stock | USD 26.88 -0.25 -0.92% |
This reference view applies Triple Exponential Smoothing to First Bancorp's historical closing prices. First Bancorp's Triple Exponential Smoothing reference page summarizes the forecasted price and model accuracy metrics from daily trading data. First Bancorp's forecast reference data is generated from the equity's historical trading prices. Mean absolute deviation and related metrics help quantify forecast uncertainty for First Bancorp.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of First Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 26.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.36 and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.97.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past First Bancorp observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older First Bancorp observations. All forecast values on this page for First Bancorp are Triple Exponential Smoothing reference data derived from historical price series. Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of First Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 26.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.36 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.22 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.97 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict First Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that First Bancorp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest First Bancorp | First Bancorp Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for First Bancorp uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 25.18 on the downside to about 28.50 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of First Bancorp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent First Bancorp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0406 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3555 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0128 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 20.9721 |
Other Forecasting Options for First Bancorp
Volume-weighted price analysis for First Stock gives heavier weight to price levels where trading activity was highest. Crossovers in the MACD line and signal line can identify shifts in First momentum before they appear in raw price. Comparing First Bancorp's realized volatility to implied volatility reveals whether the options market expects larger or smaller moves. Readings above 80 or below 20 highlight potential reversal zones in First Stock price action.First Bancorp Related Equities
Checking First Bancorp against related firms within the Financials space helps investors see where the stock stands among peers. Return on equity across these peers shows how well each firm turns capital into profit. How First Bancorp ranks within this group can shift over time as the competitive picture changes.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
First Bancorp Market Strength Events
Evaluating the market strength of First Bancorp stock allows investors to gauge shifts in market momentum. By monitoring these indicators, investors can identify the most opportune moments to trade First Bancorp. These metrics are particularly useful when First Bancorp stock shows divergence from broader market trends. Regularly reviewing First Bancorp strength signals helps maintain a structured approach to position management.
First Bancorp Risk Indicators
Understanding First Bancorp's risk indicators is essential for any investor seeking to forecast its future price accurately. By identifying how much risk is embedded in First Bancorp's investment, investors can decide how to position their exposure. Reviewing First Bancorp's basic risk indicators is essential for managing investment risk effectively. The risk-return trade-off for first stock becomes clearer when First Bancorp's risk indicators are properly assessed.
| Mean Deviation | 1.27 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.63 | |||
| Variance | 2.67 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for First Bancorp
Story coverage around First Bancorp often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
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First Bancorp Short Properties
Reviewing short-oriented indicators for First Bancorp is useful because long and short participants often create very different signals for timing and volatility. This is most valuable when investors want to know whether bearish pressure is starting to shape the market's reaction function.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 11.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 292.3 M |