FIDELITY INTERNATIONAL Mutual Fund Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| FICSX Fund | USD 34.28 -0.07 -0.20% |
This page provides reference data for FIDELITY INTERNATIONAL using Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting. The projected value and error metrics are calculated from available daily price observations.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Fidelity International Small on the next trading day is expected to be 34.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.94.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past FIDELITY INTERNATIONAL observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Fidelity International Small observations. This Triple Exponential Smoothing reference page for FIDELITY INTERNATIONAL presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes. Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 21st of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Fidelity International Small on the next trading day is expected to be 34.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.08 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.94 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict FIDELITY Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that FIDELITY INTERNATIONAL's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest FIDELITY INTERNATIONAL | FIDELITY INTERNATIONAL Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Fidelity International Small uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of FIDELITY INTERNATIONAL mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent FIDELITY INTERNATIONAL mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0449 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.199 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0056 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 11.9423 |
Other Forecasting Options for FIDELITY INTERNATIONAL
For investors considering FIDELITY, FIDELITY INTERNATIONAL's price movement is the most direct driver of investment returns. Noise in FIDELITY Mutual Fund price charts can make identifying meaningful trends difficult without dedicated analytical tools.FIDELITY INTERNATIONAL Related Equities
The following equities are related to FIDELITY INTERNATIONAL within the Foreign Small/Mid Blend space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing FIDELITY INTERNATIONAL against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
FIDELITY INTERNATIONAL Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for FIDELITY INTERNATIONAL provide investors with a view of how the mutual fund performs across different market environments. By analyzing these indicators, traders can determine the best moments to enter or exit positions in Fidelity International Small.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 34.28 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 34.28 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.04 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.07 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 38.82 |
FIDELITY INTERNATIONAL Risk Indicators
A structured analysis of FIDELITY INTERNATIONAL's risk indicators is one of the most reliable ways to improve the accuracy of price forecasts. Understanding the risk embedded in FIDELITY INTERNATIONAL's allows investors to decide whether to accept, reduce, or hedge their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 0.5502 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.9142 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.7863 | |||
| Variance | 0.6182 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.8803 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.8358 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.52 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for FIDELITY INTERNATIONAL
A coverage review of Fidelity International Small shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
Other Macroaxis Stories
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