First Horizon Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| FHN Stock | USD 21.74 -0.26 -1.18% |
Momentum
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.723 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.456 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.129 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.3444 | Wall Street Target Price 27.5278 |
The hype perspective for First Horizon National maps headline activity to recent price response and peer coverage. This sentiment summary combines First Horizon's options data with short interest context.
Short Interest Tracking - First Horizon
Tracking First Horizon's short interest over time reveals how the bearish community views First's prospects. A steady increase often reflects deteriorating fundamental sentiment.
200 Day MA 22.5149 | Short Percent 0.0266 | Short Ratio 1.43 | Shares Short Prior Month 8.7 M | 50 Day MA 24.3258 |
First RSI Trend View
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of First Horizon National on the next trading day is expected to be 21.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.35 and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.59.First Horizon National Hype-Price Mapping
The collective mood of investors toward First Horizon National is heavily influenced by public news flow. Monitoring First Horizon's sentiment trend allows investors to anticipate crowd-driven price dislocations.
Savvy investors use First Horizon's sentiment data as a positioning signal. When consensus is overwhelmingly positive, the risk of a sentiment-driven sell-off increases.
First Horizon Implied Volatility | 0.72 |
First Horizon's implied volatility rises when investors are uncertain about First Horizon National's future direction - particularly around earnings announcements or regulatory events. It typically falls as uncertainty resolves.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of First Horizon National on the next trading day is expected to be 21.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.35 and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.59.First Horizon after-hype prediction price | $ 21.75 |
Hype analysis provides context that aligns with forecasting models, technical indicators, and earnings views.
Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Horizon provides a cross-check on projections for First Horizon. The view supplies historical context for the projection discussion.Rule 16 Overview for current First contract
Based on Rule 16, the market-implied daily move for 2026-03-20 options is about 4.5%. This estimate is a volatility reference; at $ 21.74, it implies a move of about $ 0.98 per day.
Open Interest vs. 2026-03-20 First Options
The open interest measure summarizes active contracts for First Horizon and can be paired with trend context.
First Horizon Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine First price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for First using various technical indicators. When you analyze First charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 17th of March 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of First Horizon National on the next trading day is expected to be 21.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.35 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.19 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.59 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict First Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that First Horizon's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest First Horizon | First Horizon Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for First Horizon National focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. At the moment, the model places downside around 20.12 and upside around 23.36 for the forecasting period.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of First Horizon stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent First Horizon stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.7926 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0479 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3489 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0145 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 20.585 |
Experienced investors tracking First Horizon's watch for mean reversion setups: periods when price has deviated significantly from its long-run average, creating an asymmetric risk-reward profile for patient capital.
After-Hype Price Density Analysis
The after-hype price distribution for First Horizon reflects the range of predicted outcomes based on historical news impact analysis. The spread of First Horizon's distribution is a direct measure of the uncertainty inherent in any forward-looking price model.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
The after-hype price boundaries for First Horizon are calculated from a database of First Horizon's historical headline events and subsequent daily price movements. First Horizon's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 20.14 and 23.36, respectively. Investors should treat these as statistical reference points, not precise predictions for First Horizon.
Current Value
This after-hype projection for First Horizon National uses a 3 months horizon to examine how price may behave after short-term sentiment effects dissipate. This view is most useful when investors want to compare sentiment-driven price extension with a more measured post-news scenario.
Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as First Horizon is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading First Horizon backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with First Horizon, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.11 | 1.62 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 10 Events | 7 Events | In 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
21.74 | 21.75 | 0.05 |
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Hype Timeline
On the 16th of March 2026 First Horizon National is traded for 21.74. The company has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.03. First is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 21.75 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.05%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.11%. The volatility of related hype on First Horizon is about 520.9%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 21.77. The company reported last year's revenue of 4.99 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 983 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 3.35 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in 10 days. Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Horizon provides a cross-check on projections for First Horizon. The view supplies historical context for the projection discussion.Related Hype Analysis
Peer hype analysis for First Horizon aggregates sentiment and news impact data from First Horizon's competitive set to identify sector-wide trends before they are fully reflected in First Horizon's own price.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CMA | Comerica Incorporated | 4.92 | 2 per month | 1.27 | 0.16 | 2.60 | -2.15 | 9.13 | |
| WBS | Webster Financial | 0.20 | 10 per month | 1.21 | 0.1 | 1.95 | -1.78 | 12.70 | |
| GGAL | Grupo Financiero Galicia | -0.90 | 5 per month | 0.00 | -0.06 | 5.15 | -4.77 | 18.85 | |
| SSB | SouthState | -1.21 | 5 per month | 1.44 | 0.02 | 2.25 | -1.93 | 8.69 | |
| AFG | American Financial Group | 0.09 | 21 per month | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1.67 | -2.02 | 5.39 | |
| WTFC | Wintrust Financial | -1.77 | 12 per month | 0.00 | -0.01 | 2.14 | -3.52 | 10.04 | |
| BSAC | Banco Santander Chile | 0.10 | 2 per month | 2.48 | 0.05 | 3.04 | -3.31 | 9.80 | |
| JEF | Jefferies Financial Group | 0.88 | 4 per month | 0.00 | -0.21 | 2.82 | -6.24 | 17.82 | |
| AIZ | Assurant | 0.03 | 9 per month | 0.00 | 0.02 | 2.05 | -2.06 | 11.00 | |
| CFR | CullenFrost Bankers | 0.77 | 18 per month | 1.08 | 0.1 | 2.62 | -1.58 | 7.75 |
Other Forecasting Options for First Horizon
Investors evaluating First at any level of experience must contend with the challenge of understanding First Horizon's price movement. The presence of noise in First Stock price charts can significantly complicate investment decisions.First Horizon Related Equities
The following equities are related to First Horizon within the Financials space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing First Horizon against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
First Horizon Market Strength Events
For investors tracking First Horizon National, market strength indicators offer a quantitative way to evaluate how the stock behaves under varying market conditions. These metrics are widely used to refine market timing and identify the most favorable moments to trade First Horizon.
First Horizon Risk Indicators
Analyzing First Horizon's basic risk indicators provides investors with a structured view of the risk-return trade-off associated with first stock. Forecasting First Horizon's future price accurately requires understanding and quantifying the risks present in the investment.
| Mean Deviation | 1.2 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.67 | |||
| Variance | 2.8 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for First Horizon
The amount of media and story coverage tied to First Horizon National can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
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First Horizon Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to First Horizon National matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. This is most valuable when investors want to know whether bearish pressure is starting to shape the market's reaction function.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 496 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 4.6 B |
More Resources for First Stock Analysis
Understanding First Horizon National typically begins with financial statements and long-term trend review. Ratios and trend metrics help frame First Horizon's operating context across reporting periods. Key reports that frame First Horizon National Stock are listed below:Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Horizon provides a cross-check on projections for First Horizon. The view supplies historical context for the projection discussion. First Horizon P/E of 16.74 alongside ROE at 10.94% frames the starting point - the resources below add portfolio-level context that single-security analysis cannot provide alone. Within the Financial Services space, these metrics give the peer comparison tools below a concrete starting point for relative analysis. You can also try the CEOs Directory module to screen CEOs from public companies around the world.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.723 | Dividend Share 0.6 | Earnings Share 1.87 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.237 |
Understanding First Horizon National includes distinguishing between market value and book value, where book value reflects First's accounting equity. First Horizon's market capitalization is 10.7 B. At P/B 1.24, First Horizon trades moderately above book value. Enterprise value stands at 11.54 B. Intrinsic value reflects what First Horizon's fundamentals imply about worth, which may differ from both the trading price and the book figure. Analytical frameworks help reconcile those views.
Value and price for First Horizon are related but not identical, and they can diverge across cycles. For First Horizon, key inputs include a P/E ratio of 16.74, a P/B ratio of 1.24, a profit margin of 29.28%, and ROE of 10.94%. By contrast, First Horizon market price reflects the level where buyers and sellers transact.