Fire Gas Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing

FGAS Stock  ILA 1,053  1.00  0.09%   
Fire Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Fire Gas stock prices and determine the direction of Fire Gas Detection's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Fire Gas' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At this time the value of rsi of Fire Gas' share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Fire Gas' future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Fire Gas Detection, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Fire Gas hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Fire Gas Detection from the perspective of Fire Gas response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Fire Gas Detection on the next trading day is expected to be 1,056 with a mean absolute deviation of 16.27 and the sum of the absolute errors of 960.21.

Fire Gas after-hype prediction price

    
  ILA 1053.0  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fire Gas to cross-verify your projections.

Fire Gas Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Fire price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Fire using various technical indicators. When you analyze Fire charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Triple exponential smoothing for Fire Gas - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Fire Gas prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Fire Gas price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Fire Gas Detection.

Fire Gas Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 8th of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Fire Gas Detection on the next trading day is expected to be 1,056 with a mean absolute deviation of 16.27, mean absolute percentage error of 549.88, and the sum of the absolute errors of 960.21.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Fire Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Fire Gas' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Fire Gas Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Fire Gas  Fire Gas Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Fire Gas Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Fire Gas' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Fire Gas' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1,054 and 1,058, respectively. We have considered Fire Gas' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
1,053
1,056
Expected Value
1,058
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Fire Gas stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Fire Gas stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -3.7695
MADMean absolute deviation16.2748
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0157
SAESum of the absolute errors960.2115
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Fire Gas observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Fire Gas Detection observations.

Predictive Modules for Fire Gas

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fire Gas Detection. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
1,0511,0531,055
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
881.61883.491,158
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
1,0381,0491,061
Details

Fire Gas After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Fire Gas at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Fire Gas or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Fire Gas, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Fire Gas Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Fire Gas' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Fire Gas' historical news coverage. Fire Gas' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 1,051 and 1,055, respectively. We have considered Fire Gas' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
1,053
1,053
After-hype Price
1,055
Upside
Fire Gas is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Fire Gas Detection is based on 3 months time horizon.

Fire Gas Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Fire Gas is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Fire Gas backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Fire Gas, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.10 
1.88
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
In a few days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
1,053
1,053
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Fire Gas Hype Timeline

Fire Gas Detection is currently traded for 1,053on Tel Aviv Stock Exchange of Israel. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Fire is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.1%. %. The volatility of related hype on Fire Gas is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1,053. About 74.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.99. Fire Gas Detection had not issued any dividends in recent years. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be in a few days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fire Gas to cross-verify your projections.

Fire Gas Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Fire Gas' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Fire Gas' future price movements. Getting to know how Fire Gas' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Fire Gas may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Fire Gas

For every potential investor in Fire, whether a beginner or expert, Fire Gas' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Fire Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Fire. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Fire Gas' price trends.

Fire Gas Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Fire Gas stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Fire Gas could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Fire Gas by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Fire Gas Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Fire Gas stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Fire Gas shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Fire Gas stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Fire Gas Detection entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Fire Gas Risk Indicators

The analysis of Fire Gas' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Fire Gas' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting fire stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Fire Gas

The number of cover stories for Fire Gas depends on current market conditions and Fire Gas' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Fire Gas is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Fire Gas' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

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Other Information on Investing in Fire Stock

Fire Gas financial ratios help investors to determine whether Fire Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Fire with respect to the benefits of owning Fire Gas security.