First Eagle Mutual Fund Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| FESAX Fund | USD 11.85 -0.29 -2.39% |
This reference page presents Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast data for First Eagle Small. The projected values and error metrics are presented below as reference information.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of First Eagle Small on the next trading day is expected to be 11.79 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.90.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past First Eagle observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older First Eagle Small observations. This Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast data for First Eagle Small is sourced from the most recent available trading data and is intended solely as reference information. Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of First Eagle Small on the next trading day is expected to be 11.79 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.02 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.90 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict First Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that First Eagle's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for First Eagle Small uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. The current forecast range spans downside near 10.60 and upside near 12.98.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of First Eagle mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent First Eagle mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0174 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1169 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0094 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 6.8952 |
Other Forecasting Options for First Eagle
First Eagle's daily price returns can be decomposed into trend, seasonal, and residual components. Divergence between short-term and long-term averages in First often signals an upcoming reversal or acceleration.First Eagle Related Equities
These firms work in a similar space as First Eagle within the Small Value space and serve as useful points for comparison. Growth rate gaps between First Eagle and its peers often explain pricing differences in the market. Investors should look for peers that steadily beat or lag First Eagle across many periods. This type of review is most useful when done often to track how positions shift over time.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
First Eagle Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors evaluate how First Eagle mutual fund reacts to evolving market conditions. These indicators help determine optimal entry and exit points for trading First Eagle Small.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 11.85 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 11.85 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.15 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.29 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 39.59 |
First Eagle Risk Indicators
The analysis of First Eagle's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. Understanding the risk involved in holding First Eagle's allows investors to make informed decisions about their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9052 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.19 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.19 | |||
| Variance | 1.42 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.7 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.42 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.94 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for First Eagle
Story coverage around First Eagle Small often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis story coverage is designed for a broad investing audience that ranges from self-directed traders to advisers, researchers, and institutional market participants. The content is intended to support people who want a more structured path from headline information to portfolio action.