Femasys Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing

FEMY Stock  USD 0.49  -0.02  -3.31%   
This page provides Double Exponential Smoothing reference data for Femasys, calculated from historical daily prices. The model output shown here is derived from Femasys's historical price series and is provided for informational purposes.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Femasys on the next trading day is expected to be 0.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.31.When Femasys prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Femasys trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Femasys observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. The Double Exponential Smoothing reference information for Femasys is based on available price data and is intended for informational purposes.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Femasys works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Femasys on the next trading day is expected to be 0.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.0009 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.31 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Femasys Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Femasys' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Femasys  Femasys Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Forecasted Value

The next-day forecast for Femasys focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. At the moment, the model places downside around 0.0049 and upside around 5.61 for the forecasting period.
Market Value
0.49
0.0049
Downside
0.47
Expected Value
5.61
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Femasys stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Femasys stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0016
MADMean absolute deviation0.0222
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0384
SAESum of the absolute errors1.3079
When Femasys prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Femasys trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Femasys observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Other Forecasting Options for Femasys

The autocorrelation structure of Femasys' daily returns reveals whether Femasys exhibits momentum, mean-reversion, or random-walk behavior. Separating these elements helps distinguish persistent directional moves from temporary noise in Femasys Stock price data.

Femasys Related Equities

Checking Femasys against related firms within the Health Care space helps investors see where the stock stands among peers. Checking cash flow across this peer set helps gauge Femasys' relative financial strength.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Femasys Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators applied to Femasys stock help assess momentum and resilience across environments. These indicators support informed market timing decisions when analyzing Femasys.

Femasys Risk Indicators

Risk indicator analysis for Femasys is essential for accurately projecting its future price trajectory. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Femasys' investment and either accepting or mitigating it.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Femasys

Story coverage around Femasys often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.

Femasys Short Properties

A short-interest review of Femasys provides context for understanding whether skepticism in the market is becoming more influential. This is most valuable when investors want to know whether bearish pressure is starting to shape the market's reaction function.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding22.3 M
Cash And Short Term Investments3.5 M

More Resources for Femasys Stock Analysis

Analysis of Femasys often begins with its financial statements and historical patterns. The following reports provide structured context for Femasys Stock: