FIDELITY ADVISOR Mutual Fund Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| FELIX Fund | USD 130.61 -5.57 -4.09% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecast shown here for FIDELITY ADVISOR is reference data produced from its historical price series. The projected value and error measures below serve as reference information. This data is provided for reference and analytical review. The Double Exponential Smoothing output serves as one input among many for analytical review.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Fidelity Advisor Semiconductors on the next trading day is expected to be 130.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.19 and the sum of the absolute errors of 131.27.When Fidelity Advisor Semiconductors prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Fidelity Advisor Semiconductors trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent FIDELITY ADVISOR observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. This Double Exponential Smoothing reference page for FIDELITY ADVISOR presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Fidelity Advisor Semiconductors on the next trading day is expected to be 130.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.19 , mean absolute percentage error of 7.48 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 131.27 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict FIDELITY Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that FIDELITY ADVISOR's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates FIDELITY ADVISOR's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. No forecasting approach has been shown to beat all others over time. Investors should treat any model output as a guide, not a guarantee.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of FIDELITY ADVISOR mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent FIDELITY ADVISOR mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.3159 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.1878 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0163 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 131.2671 |
Other Forecasting Options for FIDELITY ADVISOR
The distribution of FIDELITY ADVISOR's daily returns is typically non-normal, with fatter tails than a Gaussian model predicts. This can reveal hidden support and resistance zones in FIDELITY ADVISOR's chart that simple price charts miss. The slope of FIDELITY ADVISOR's linear regression channel quantifies trend direction and strength over a chosen lookback period. Divergences between OBV and price can foreshadow trend changes in FIDELITY.FIDELITY ADVISOR Related Equities
These stocks within the Technology space are often compared to FIDELITY ADVISOR by analysts and fund managers in the sector. Profit comparisons show whether FIDELITY ADVISOR earns above or below average returns next to its peers. Identifying peers that steadily beat or lag FIDELITY ADVISOR across many periods highlights durable competitive gaps. Weighing both financial metrics and softer factors when comparing these firms produces a more balanced assessment.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
FIDELITY ADVISOR Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for FIDELITY ADVISOR give insight into the mutual fund's responsiveness to broader forces. These indicators are useful for traders seeking optimal timing for positions in Fidelity Advisor Semiconductors. Market strength analysis for Fidelity Advisor Semiconductors works best when combined with volume and volatility data. For FIDELITY ADVISOR, strength indicators are a practical complement to price and fundamental analysis.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.96 | |||
| Day Median Price | 130.61 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 130.61 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -2.78 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -5.57 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 47.83 |
FIDELITY ADVISOR Risk Indicators
A thorough review of FIDELITY ADVISOR's risk indicators is an important first step in forecasting its price. Quantifying the risk involved in FIDELITY ADVISOR's allows investors to make better decisions about entry, sizing, and hedging. The assessment of FIDELITY ADVISOR's risk indicators plays a key role in managing investment exposure. Identifying the magnitude of risk in FIDELITY ADVISOR's provides context to choose between accepting or hedging exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 1.51 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.88 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.0 | |||
| Variance | 3.99 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.53 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.54 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.44 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for FIDELITY ADVISOR
A coverage review of Fidelity Advisor Semiconductors shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.
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