Fenbo Holdings Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| FEBO Stock | 1.17 0.02 1.68% |
Fenbo Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Fenbo Holdings' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Fenbo Holdings' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Fenbo Holdings fundamentals over time.
As of today, The relative strength index (RSI) of Fenbo Holdings' share price is at 54. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Fenbo Holdings, making its price go up or down. Momentum 54
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.36) |
Using Fenbo Holdings hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Fenbo Holdings Limited from the perspective of Fenbo Holdings response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Fenbo Holdings Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 1.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.60. Fenbo Holdings after-hype prediction price | USD 1.13 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fenbo Holdings to cross-verify your projections. Fenbo Holdings Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Fenbo price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Fenbo using various technical indicators. When you analyze Fenbo charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Fenbo Holdings Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Fenbo Holdings Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 1.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.60.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Fenbo Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Fenbo Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Fenbo Holdings Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Fenbo Holdings | Fenbo Holdings Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Fenbo Holdings Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Fenbo Holdings' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Fenbo Holdings' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 6.89, respectively. We have considered Fenbo Holdings' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Fenbo Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Fenbo Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0024 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0441 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0465 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2.601 |
Predictive Modules for Fenbo Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fenbo Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Fenbo Holdings After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Fenbo Holdings at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Fenbo Holdings or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Fenbo Holdings, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Fenbo Holdings Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Fenbo Holdings' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Fenbo Holdings' historical news coverage. Fenbo Holdings' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.06 and 6.85, respectively. We have considered Fenbo Holdings' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Fenbo Holdings is abnormally volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Fenbo Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
Fenbo Holdings Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Fenbo Holdings is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Fenbo Holdings backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Fenbo Holdings, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.82 | 5.72 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 8 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
1.17 | 1.13 | 3.42 |
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Fenbo Holdings Hype Timeline
Fenbo Holdings is currently traded for 1.17. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.07. Fenbo is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 1.13. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -3.42%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.82%. The volatility of related hype on Fenbo Holdings is about 7150.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1.24. The book value of the company was currently reported as 0.49. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.2. Fenbo Holdings had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fenbo Holdings to cross-verify your projections.Fenbo Holdings Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Fenbo Holdings' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Fenbo Holdings' future price movements. Getting to know how Fenbo Holdings' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Fenbo Holdings may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| VS | Versus Systems | 0.01 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.23) | 3.97 | (7.19) | 21.78 | |
| SCKT | Socket Mobile | 0.05 | 9 per month | 2.82 | 0.12 | 5.00 | (5.26) | 22.49 | |
| RVYL | Ryvyl Inc | 0.42 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 15.98 | (12.53) | 31.97 | |
| MSN | Emerson Radio | (0.01) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 5.00 | (8.16) | 24.18 | |
| AGMH | AGM Group Holdings | 0.35 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.28) | 4.90 | (7.05) | 33.60 | |
| ORKT | Orangekloud Technology Class | 0.01 | 2 per month | 9.10 | (0) | 5.88 | (13.59) | 189.93 | |
| LGCL | Lucas GC Limited | (0.15) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 10.50 | (9.26) | 31.37 | |
| OST | Ostin Technology Group | 0.00 | 4 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| SMTK | SmartKem Common Stock | 0.09 | 24 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 10.13 | (14.84) | 33.05 | |
| MITQ | Moving iMage Technologies | 0.03 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 6.76 | (8.05) | 25.39 |
Other Forecasting Options for Fenbo Holdings
For every potential investor in Fenbo, whether a beginner or expert, Fenbo Holdings' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Fenbo Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Fenbo. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Fenbo Holdings' price trends.Fenbo Holdings Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Fenbo Holdings stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Fenbo Holdings could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Fenbo Holdings by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Fenbo Holdings Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Fenbo Holdings stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Fenbo Holdings shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Fenbo Holdings stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Fenbo Holdings Limited entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 1.17 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 1.17 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.01) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.02) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 54.23 |
Fenbo Holdings Risk Indicators
The analysis of Fenbo Holdings' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Fenbo Holdings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting fenbo stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.14 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.91 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.69 | |||
| Variance | 32.34 | |||
| Downside Variance | 36.11 | |||
| Semi Variance | 24.08 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (4.75) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Fenbo Holdings
The number of cover stories for Fenbo Holdings depends on current market conditions and Fenbo Holdings' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Fenbo Holdings is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Fenbo Holdings' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Fenbo Holdings Short Properties
Fenbo Holdings' future price predictability will typically decrease when Fenbo Holdings' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Fenbo Holdings Limited often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Fenbo Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Fenbo Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 11 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 27.5 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fenbo Holdings to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Pattern Recognition module to use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges.
Will Household Appliances sector continue expanding? Could Fenbo diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Fenbo Holdings. Market participants price Fenbo higher when confident in its future expansion prospects. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Fenbo Holdings data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Earnings Share (0.20) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.36) | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
Fenbo Holdings's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on Fenbo's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate Fenbo Holdings' intrinsic value—its true economic worth—which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Since Fenbo Holdings' trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Fenbo Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Fenbo Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Fenbo Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.