FIDELITY VALUE Mutual Fund Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| FDVLX Fund | USD 14.17 -0.16 -1.12% |
This reference view applies Triple Exponential Smoothing to Fidelity Value Fund's historical closing prices. Fidelity Value Fund's Triple Exponential Smoothing reference page summarizes the forecasted price and model accuracy metrics from daily trading data. Fidelity Value Fund's forecast reference data is generated from the equity's historical trading prices. Mean absolute deviation and related metrics help quantify forecast uncertainty for Fidelity Value Fund.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Fidelity Value Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 14.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.37.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past FIDELITY VALUE observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Fidelity Value Fund observations. All forecast values on this page for Fidelity Value Fund are Triple Exponential Smoothing reference data derived from historical price series. Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Fidelity Value Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 14.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.03 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.37 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict FIDELITY Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that FIDELITY VALUE's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates FIDELITY VALUE's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of FIDELITY VALUE mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent FIDELITY VALUE mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 7.0E-4 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1249 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0086 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7.3666 |
Other Forecasting Options for FIDELITY VALUE
Volume-weighted price analysis for FIDELITY Mutual Fund gives heavier weight to price levels where trading activity was highest. Crossovers in the MACD line and signal line can identify shifts in FIDELITY momentum before they appear in raw price. Comparing FIDELITY VALUE's realized volatility to implied volatility reveals whether the options market expects larger or smaller moves. Readings above 80 or below 20 highlight potential reversal zones in FIDELITY Mutual Fund price action.FIDELITY VALUE Related Equities
The stocks listed below are peers of FIDELITY VALUE within the Mid-Cap Value space and offer context for ranking and strength. Return on equity across these peers shows how well each firm turns capital into profit. Identifying peers that steadily beat or lag FIDELITY VALUE across many periods highlights durable competitive gaps.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
FIDELITY VALUE Market Strength Events
Evaluating the market strength of FIDELITY VALUE mutual fund allows investors to gauge shifts in market momentum. Monitoring these indicators highlights periods where Fidelity Value Fund trading conditions shift meaningfully. These metrics are particularly useful when FIDELITY VALUE mutual fund shows divergence from broader market trends. Regularly reviewing Fidelity Value Fund strength signals helps maintain a structured approach to position management.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 14.17 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 14.17 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.08 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.16 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 30.39 |
FIDELITY VALUE Risk Indicators
Understanding FIDELITY VALUE's risk indicators is essential for any investor seeking to forecast its future price accurately. By identifying how much risk is embedded in FIDELITY VALUE's investment, investors can decide how to position their exposure. Reviewing FIDELITY VALUE's basic risk indicators is essential for managing investment risk effectively. The risk-return trade-off for fidelity mutual fund becomes clearer when FIDELITY VALUE's risk indicators are properly assessed.
| Mean Deviation | 0.79 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.991 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.05 | |||
| Variance | 1.11 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.28 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.982 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.88 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for FIDELITY VALUE
A coverage review of Fidelity Value Fund shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. A disciplined read of coverage separates durable relevance from temporary noise.
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