Fidelity Large Mutual Fund Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| FCLKX Fund | USD 18.22 -0.28 -1.51% |
This page documents Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast output for Fidelity Large Cap as reference data. The model is applied to historical closing prices and the resulting projection and error statistics are shown below. Key metrics including projected price and mean absolute deviation are summarized below.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Fidelity Large Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 18.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.82.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Fidelity Large observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Fidelity Large Cap observations. Fidelity Large's Triple Exponential Smoothing reference values are drawn from available trading data and are presented for informational reference only. Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Fidelity Large Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 18.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.02 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.82 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Fidelity Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Fidelity Large's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Fidelity Large | Fidelity Large Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates Fidelity Large's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 17.41 on the downside to about 18.93 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Fidelity Large mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Fidelity Large mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0301 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1156 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0061 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 6.82 |
Other Forecasting Options for Fidelity Large
MACD analysis of Fidelity tracks the relationship between two exponential moving averages of Fidelity Large's price. Many Fidelity Large's traders use Fibonacci levels to set entry and exit targets based on prior price swings. Average True Range measures the typical daily price swing for Fidelity, accounting for gaps.Fidelity Large Related Equities
These firms work in a similar space as Fidelity Large within the Large Blend space and serve as useful points for comparison. Looking at Fidelity Large's pricing multiples next to these peers shows if the stock trades at a premium or discount. Investors should look for peers that steadily beat or lag Fidelity Large across many periods. This type of review is most useful when done often to track how positions shift over time.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Fidelity Large Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Fidelity Large assess how the mutual fund responds to changes in investor sentiment. These signals support informed decisions about when to enter or exit Fidelity Large Cap positions. Market strength signals help investors time Fidelity Large Cap positions with greater precision and confidence.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 18.22 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 18.22 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.14 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.28 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 37.37 |
Fidelity Large Risk Indicators
Risk indicator analysis for Fidelity Large is a critical component of accurate price forecasting. Identifying and quantifying the risks associated with Fidelity Large's allows investors to make better-informed decisions. Understanding Fidelity Large's risk indicators is a fundamental step in managing investment exposure responsibly.
| Mean Deviation | 0.6353 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.8198 | |||
| Variance | 0.6721 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Fidelity Large
The amount of media and story coverage tied to Fidelity Large Cap can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis story coverage is designed for a broad investing audience that ranges from self-directed traders to advisers, researchers, and institutional market participants. The content is intended to support people who want a more structured path from headline information to portfolio action.