FC Investment Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

FCIT Stock   1,244  11.00  0.88%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of FC Investment Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 1,244 with a mean absolute deviation of 7.96 and the sum of the absolute errors of 469.67. FCIT Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At the present time the relative strength index (rsi) of FC Investment's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of FC Investment's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of FC Investment and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from FC Investment's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with FC Investment Trust, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting FC Investment's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.122
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.95)
Using FC Investment hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of FC Investment Trust from the perspective of FC Investment response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of FC Investment Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 1,244 with a mean absolute deviation of 7.96 and the sum of the absolute errors of 469.67.

FC Investment after-hype prediction price

    
  GBX 1244.4  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of FC Investment to cross-verify your projections.

FC Investment Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine FCIT price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for FCIT using various technical indicators. When you analyze FCIT charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Triple exponential smoothing for FC Investment - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When FC Investment prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in FC Investment price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of FC Investment Trust.

FC Investment Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of FC Investment Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 1,244 with a mean absolute deviation of 7.96, mean absolute percentage error of 101.44, and the sum of the absolute errors of 469.67.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict FCIT Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that FC Investment's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

FC Investment Stock Forecast Pattern

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FC Investment Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting FC Investment's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. FC Investment's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1,243 and 1,244, respectively. We have considered FC Investment's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
1,244
1,244
Expected Value
1,244
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of FC Investment stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent FC Investment stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 1.695
MADMean absolute deviation7.9605
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0065
SAESum of the absolute errors469.6704
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past FC Investment observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older FC Investment Trust observations.

Predictive Modules for FC Investment

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as FC Investment Trust. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
1,2441,2441,245
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
1,1441,1441,368
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
1,2191,2461,272
Details

FC Investment After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of FC Investment at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in FC Investment or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of FC Investment, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

FC Investment Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting FC Investment's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on FC Investment's historical news coverage. FC Investment's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 1,244 and 1,245, respectively. We have considered FC Investment's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
1,244
1,244
After-hype Price
1,245
Upside
FC Investment is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of FC Investment Trust is based on 3 months time horizon.

FC Investment Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as FC Investment is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading FC Investment backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with FC Investment, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.04 
0.77
  0.40 
  22.72 
3 Events / Month
2 Events / Month
In about 3 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
1,244
1,244
0.03 
7.72  
Notes

FC Investment Hype Timeline

FC Investment Trust is currently traded for 1,244on London Exchange of UK. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.4, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -22.72. FCIT is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 1244.4 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 7.72%. The price appreciation on the next news is projected to be 0.03%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.04%. The volatility of related hype on FC Investment is about 0.14%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1,221. The company reported the revenue of 644.89 M. Net Income was 1.01 B with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 405.17 M. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next projected press release will be in about 3 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of FC Investment to cross-verify your projections.

FC Investment Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to FC Investment's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict FC Investment's future price movements. Getting to know how FC Investment's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how FC Investment may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
SMSDSamsung Electronics Co 20.00 6 per month 1.98  0.19  5.44 (3.79) 10.30 
BC94Samsung Electronics Co(23.00)4 per month 2.15  0.22  5.62 (3.83) 11.98 
SMSNSamsung Electronics Co 80.00 5 per month 2.15  0.22  5.71 (3.86) 11.94 
TYTToyota Motor Corp 3.00 8 per month 1.10  0.13  3.36 (2.26) 8.55 
LGLDLG ELECTRONICS INC 0.00 4 per month 5.78  0.08  12.90 (11.76) 45.83 
RIGDReliance Industries Limited 240.40 5 per month 0.00 (0.17) 1.36 (2.57) 6.17 
0RUKMOL Hungarian Oil 0.00 4 per month 0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00 
0M69OTP Bank Nyrt(4,865)2 per month 0.00  0.07  0.00  0.00  221.33 

Other Forecasting Options for FC Investment

For every potential investor in FCIT, whether a beginner or expert, FC Investment's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. FCIT Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in FCIT. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying FC Investment's price trends.

FC Investment Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with FC Investment stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of FC Investment could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing FC Investment by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

FC Investment Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how FC Investment stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading FC Investment shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying FC Investment stock market strength indicators, traders can identify FC Investment Trust entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

FC Investment Risk Indicators

The analysis of FC Investment's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in FC Investment's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting fcit stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for FC Investment

The number of cover stories for FC Investment depends on current market conditions and FC Investment's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that FC Investment is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about FC Investment's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

FC Investment Short Properties

FC Investment's future price predictability will typically decrease when FC Investment's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of FC Investment Trust often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential FC Investment's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. FC Investment's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding497.1 M
Cash And Short Term Investments91.1 M

Additional Tools for FCIT Stock Analysis

When running FC Investment's price analysis, check to measure FC Investment's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy FC Investment is operating at the current time. Most of FC Investment's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of FC Investment's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move FC Investment's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of FC Investment to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.