First Bancorp Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing

FBP Stock  USD 21.03  0.27  1.30%   
First Bancorp's Triple Exponential Smoothing reference data reflects the model's output when applied to available daily price observations. This page summarizes the model output and key accuracy metrics for reference. The projected value and error metrics are calculated from available daily price observations.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of First Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 21.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.26 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.59.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past First Bancorp observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older First Bancorp observations. The Triple Exponential Smoothing reference values for First Bancorp are derived from publicly available price data and should be used for informational purposes only.
Triple exponential smoothing for First Bancorp - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When First Bancorp prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in First Bancorp price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of First Bancorp.

Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of First Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 21.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.26 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.15 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.59 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict First Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that First Bancorp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Stock Forecast Pattern

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Forecasted Value

For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates First Bancorp's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. At the moment, the model places downside around 19.23 and upside around 22.76 for the forecasting period.
Market Value
21.03
21.00
Expected Value
22.76
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of First Bancorp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent First Bancorp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0449
MADMean absolute deviation0.2599
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0121
SAESum of the absolute errors15.5925
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past First Bancorp observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older First Bancorp observations.

Other Forecasting Options for First Bancorp

Relative Strength Index values for First measure the speed and magnitude of recent price changes. Recognizing these clusters in First Bancorp's returns helps calibrate position size and stop-loss levels. Candlestick pattern analysis of First Stock daily data can reveal short-term reversal or continuation signals.

First Bancorp Related Equities

The peer firms below within the Financials space can help frame First Bancorp's pricing and running costs in context. Profit comparisons show whether First Bancorp earns above or below average returns next to its peers.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

First Bancorp Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators provide a structured view of how First Bancorp stock is positioned relative to trends. These indicators are valuable tools for identifying when to enter or exit positions in First Bancorp. These signals help validate or refine position timing for First Bancorp.

First Bancorp Risk Indicators

The analysis of First Bancorp's risk metrics is one of the most important steps in projecting its future price. This process quantifies the risk associated with First Bancorp's and helps determine how to manage it. A structured analysis of First Bancorp's risk indicators is one of the most reliable ways to improve forecast accuracy.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for First Bancorp

A coverage review of First Bancorp shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.

First Bancorp Short Properties

Short sentiment tied to First Bancorp matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. A disciplined short-interest review can make timing decisions more informed under rising skepticism.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding160.7 M
Cash And Short Term Investments657.1 M

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