FIDELITY FREEDOM Mutual Fund Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| FBIFX Fund | USD 28.12 -0.54 -1.88% |
This page provides Double Exponential Smoothing reference data for Fidelity Freedom Index, calculated from historical daily prices. The forecast output and associated deviation metrics are shown for informational use.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Fidelity Freedom Index on the next trading day is expected to be 28.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.74.When Fidelity Freedom Index prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Fidelity Freedom Index trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent FIDELITY FREEDOM observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. FIDELITY FREEDOM's Double Exponential Smoothing reference data is provided for informational and analytical purposes and does not constitute a trading recommendation. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 22nd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Fidelity Freedom Index on the next trading day is expected to be 28.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.04 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.74 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict FIDELITY Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that FIDELITY FREEDOM's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest FIDELITY FREEDOM | FIDELITY FREEDOM Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for Fidelity Freedom Index focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 27.33 on the downside to about 28.73 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of FIDELITY FREEDOM mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent FIDELITY FREEDOM mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0429 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1623 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0055 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 9.7406 |
Other Forecasting Options for FIDELITY FREEDOM
The price movement of FIDELITY is a central concern for all potential investors, regardless of their level of expertise. FIDELITY Mutual Fund price charts can be difficult to interpret due to the noise present in the data.FIDELITY FREEDOM Related Equities
The following equities are related to FIDELITY FREEDOM within the Target-Date 2040 space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing FIDELITY FREEDOM against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
FIDELITY FREEDOM Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators applied to FIDELITY FREEDOM mutual fund help investors assess the relative momentum and resilience of the security in different market environments. By using these indicators, traders can make more informed decisions about when to buy or sell Fidelity Freedom Index.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 28.12 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 28.12 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.27 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.54 |
FIDELITY FREEDOM Risk Indicators
Risk indicator analysis for FIDELITY FREEDOM is essential for accurately projecting its future price trajectory. By identifying the level of risk embedded in FIDELITY FREEDOM's investment, investors can make informed decisions about position sizing and risk mitigation.
| Mean Deviation | 0.5243 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.69 | |||
| Variance | 0.4761 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for FIDELITY FREEDOM
Story coverage around Fidelity Freedom Index often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis publishes story content for a diverse readership that includes finance students, independent investors, money managers, and market-focused operating teams. What connects that audience is a focus on building stronger portfolios through better research, risk awareness, and comparative analysis.