EZCORP Stock Forward View - Polynomial Regression
| EZPW Stock | USD 25.79 -0.06 -0.23% |
This Polynomial Regression reference page for EZCORP Inc presents model-generated forecast data based on historical daily prices. The output values and deviation metrics are provided for informational reference.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of EZCORP Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 25.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.57 and the sum of the absolute errors of 34.67.A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the EZCORP historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm All Polynomial Regression forecast figures shown for EZCORP Inc are reference data reflecting model output based on available historical prices. Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 20th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of EZCORP Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 25.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.57 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.54 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 34.67 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict EZCORP Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that EZCORP's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest EZCORP | EZCORP Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for EZCORP Inc uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of EZCORP stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent EZCORP stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.4861 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5684 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.025 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 34.6729 |
Other Forecasting Options for EZCORP
Price movement is the most fundamental factor that determines whether EZCORP is a viable investment for any investor. EZCORP Stock price charts are often noisy, making it difficult to identify meaningful patterns without analytical tools.EZCORP Related Equities
The following equities are related to EZCORP within the Financials space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing EZCORP against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
EZCORP Market Strength Events
Assessing the market strength of EZCORP stock provides investors with a clearer picture of how the security reacts to evolving market dynamics. These indicators can be used to identify periods when trading EZCORP Inc is most likely to be profitable.
EZCORP Risk Indicators
The analysis of EZCORP's basic risk metrics provides a foundation for forecasting its future price and managing investment risk. Identifying the magnitude of risk in EZCORP's helps investors choose between accepting or hedging their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 1.69 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.55 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.43 | |||
| Variance | 5.91 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.01 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.39 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -2.02 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for EZCORP
Coverage intensity for EZCORP Inc matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.
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EZCORP Short Properties
Short-interest signals around EZCORP Inc can help investors judge whether skeptical positioning is starting to pressure price predictability and market tone. A disciplined short-interest review can make timing decisions more informed under rising skepticism.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 83.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 469.5 M |
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