Extra Space Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing

EXR Stock  USD 131.83  1.57  1.21%   
This reference page presents Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast data for Extra Space Storage. The projected values and error metrics are presented below as reference information.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Extra Space Storage on the next trading day is expected to be 131.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.83 and the sum of the absolute errors of 107.82.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Extra Space observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Extra Space Storage observations. This Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast data for Extra Space Storage is sourced from the most recent available trading data and is intended solely as reference information.
Triple exponential smoothing for Extra Space - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Extra Space prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Extra Space price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Extra Space Storage.

Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Extra Space Storage on the next trading day is expected to be 131.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.83 , mean absolute percentage error of 5.45 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 107.82 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Extra Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Extra Space's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Stock Forecast Pattern

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Forecasted Value

The next-day forecast for Extra Space Storage focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. No forecasting approach has been shown to beat all others over time. Investors should treat any model output as a guide, not a guarantee.
Market Value
131.83
129.49
Downside
131.12
Expected Value
132.75
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Extra Space stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Extra Space stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.3748
MADMean absolute deviation1.8275
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.013
SAESum of the absolute errors107.8245
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Extra Space observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Extra Space Storage observations.

Other Forecasting Options for Extra Space

Extra Space's daily price returns can be decomposed into trend, seasonal, and residual components. Divergence between short-term and long-term averages in Extra often signals an upcoming reversal or acceleration.

Extra Space Related Equities

These stocks are related to Extra Space within the Real Estate space and can be used for peer review, pricing, or spreading risk. Return on equity across these peers shows how well each firm turns capital into profit. Identifying peers that steadily beat or lag Extra Space across many periods highlights durable competitive gaps.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Extra Space Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors evaluate how Extra Space stock reacts to evolving market conditions. These indicators help determine optimal entry and exit points for trading Extra Space Storage.

Extra Space Risk Indicators

The analysis of Extra Space's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. Understanding the risk involved in holding Extra Space's allows investors to make informed decisions about their exposure.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Extra Space

Story coverage around Extra Space Storage often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.

Extra Space Short Properties

Reviewing short-oriented indicators for Extra Space Storage is useful because long and short participants often create very different signals for timing and volatility. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding211.9 M
Cash And Short Term Investments138.9 M

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