Exponent Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| EXPO Stock | USD 73.49 1.18 1.58% |
Exponent Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Exponent's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Exponent's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Exponent fundamentals over time.
As of today, The relative strength index (RSI) of Exponent's share price is at 53 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Exponent, making its price go up or down. Momentum 53
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.1 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.4654 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.0556 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.2475 | Wall Street Target Price 90.3333 |
Using Exponent hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Exponent from the perspective of Exponent response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Exponent using Exponent's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Exponent using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Exponent's stock price.
Exponent Short Interest
An investor who is long Exponent may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Exponent and may potentially protect profits, hedge Exponent with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 72.8988 | Short Percent 0.0652 | Short Ratio 6.16 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.5 M | 50 Day MA 72.5148 |
Exponent Relative Strength Index
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Exponent on the next trading day is expected to be 72.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 60.52.Exponent Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Exponent's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Exponent. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Exponent can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Exponent. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Exponent's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Exponent.
Exponent Implied Volatility | 0.63 |
Exponent's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Exponent stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Exponent's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Exponent stock will not fluctuate a lot when Exponent's options are near their expiration.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Exponent on the next trading day is expected to be 72.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 60.52. Exponent after-hype prediction price | USD 73.81 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Exponent to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Exponent contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Exponent will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0394% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Exponent trading at USD 73.49, that is roughly USD 0.0289 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Exponent's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Exponent options at the current volatility level of 0.63%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Exponent Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Exponent's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Exponent's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Exponent stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Exponent's open interest, investors have to compare it to Exponent's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Exponent is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Exponent. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Exponent Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Exponent price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Exponent using various technical indicators. When you analyze Exponent charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Exponent Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Exponent on the next trading day is expected to be 72.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.01, mean absolute percentage error of 1.80, and the sum of the absolute errors of 60.52.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Exponent Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Exponent's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Exponent Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Exponent | Exponent Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Exponent Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Exponent's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Exponent's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 71.47 and 74.46, respectively. We have considered Exponent's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Exponent stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Exponent stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1753 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.0086 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0139 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 60.5178 |
Predictive Modules for Exponent
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Exponent. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Exponent After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Exponent at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Exponent or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Exponent, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Exponent Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Exponent's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Exponent's historical news coverage. Exponent's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 72.15 and 75.47, respectively. We have considered Exponent's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Exponent is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Exponent is based on 3 months time horizon.
Exponent Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Exponent is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Exponent backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Exponent, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.08 | 1.50 | 0.14 | 0.05 | 10 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
73.49 | 73.81 | 0.44 |
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Exponent Hype Timeline
Exponent is currently traded for 73.49. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.14, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.05. Exponent is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 73.81 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 85.23%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.44%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.08%. The volatility of related hype on Exponent is about 218.34%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 73.44. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 558.51 M. Net Income was 109 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 191.78 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Exponent to cross-verify your projections.Exponent Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Exponent's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Exponent's future price movements. Getting to know how Exponent's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Exponent may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BA | The Boeing | 4.60 | 8 per month | 1.73 | 0.05 | 2.79 | (3.18) | 13.01 | |
| DIDIY | Didi Global ADR | (4.51) | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 4.86 | (4.86) | 13.51 | |
| ZETA | Zeta Global Holdings | (0.84) | 12 per month | 3.68 | 0.03 | 8.32 | (5.77) | 28.98 | |
| MRK | Merck Company | (1.60) | 6 per month | 1.14 | 0.16 | 3.59 | (1.98) | 8.09 | |
| AL | Air Lease | (0.08) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.39) | 0.25 | (0.17) | 0.66 | |
| RTTGF | RTG Mining | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.06 | 10.67 | 0.00 | 95.83 | |
| AG | First Majestic Silver | 0.67 | 11 per month | 3.00 | 0.25 | 8.86 | (5.18) | 17.91 | |
| NMEX | Northern Minerals Exploration | 2.04 | 4 per month | 8.71 | 0.10 | 25.00 | (15.00) | 83.85 | |
| SRSNX | Sierra Tactical Risk | (5.79) | 2 per month | 0.44 | (0.02) | 0.79 | (0.98) | 2.35 | |
| AA | Alcoa Corp | (1.36) | 7 per month | 2.43 | 0.18 | 6.40 | (4.96) | 14.55 |
Other Forecasting Options for Exponent
For every potential investor in Exponent, whether a beginner or expert, Exponent's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Exponent Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Exponent. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Exponent's price trends.Exponent Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Exponent stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Exponent could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Exponent by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Exponent Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Exponent stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Exponent shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Exponent stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Exponent entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 3935.72 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.77) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 73.71 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 73.63 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.81) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.18) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 53.51 |
Exponent Risk Indicators
The analysis of Exponent's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Exponent's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting exponent stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.25 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.23 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.69 | |||
| Variance | 2.86 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.73 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.52 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.49) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Exponent
The number of cover stories for Exponent depends on current market conditions and Exponent's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Exponent is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Exponent's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Exponent Short Properties
Exponent's future price predictability will typically decrease when Exponent's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Exponent often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Exponent's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Exponent's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 51.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 258.9 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Exponent to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Exponent Stock, please use our How to Invest in Exponent guide.You can also try the Portfolio Optimization module to compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk.
Will Research & Consulting Services sector continue expanding? Could Exponent diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Exponent. Projected growth potential of Exponent fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Exponent data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.1 | Dividend Share 1.18 | Earnings Share 2.03 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.096 |
The market value of Exponent is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Exponent that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Exponent's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Exponent's true underlying value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Because Exponent's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Exponent's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Exponent's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Exponent should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Meanwhile, Exponent's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.