Expedia Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| EXPE Stock | USD 232.84 -3.42 -1.45% |
Expedia Group's Double Exponential Smoothing reference page covers the model's projected value and error measures from recent price data. The forecast output and associated deviation metrics are shown for informational use.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Expedia Group on the next trading day is expected to be 231.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.33 and the sum of the absolute errors of 373.64.When Expedia Group prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Expedia Group trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Expedia observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. All Double Exponential Smoothing forecast figures shown for Expedia Group are reference data reflecting model output based on available historical prices. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Expedia Group on the next trading day is expected to be 231.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.33 , mean absolute percentage error of 89.16 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 373.64 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Expedia Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Expedia's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Expedia | Expedia Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates Expedia's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 227.24 on the downside to about 234.80 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Expedia stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Expedia stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.9464 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 6.3329 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0263 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 373.64 |
Other Forecasting Options for Expedia
Bollinger Bands applied to Expedia Stock price data measure how far Expedia has deviated from its recent average relative to its own volatility. This distinction drives the choice of forecasting model applied to Expedia's price data.Expedia Related Equities
Checking Expedia against related firms within the Consumer Discretionary space helps investors see where the stock stands among peers. Market cap and total value checks frame Expedia's size within the competitive field.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Expedia Market Strength Events
For investors tracking Expedia Group, market strength indicators offer quantitative evaluation of stock behavior. These indicators add context to timing decisions around Expedia Group positions.
| Accumulation Distribution | 36637.27 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | -0.47 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 234.44 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 233.9 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -3.30 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -3.42 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 47.02 |
Expedia Risk Indicators
Analyzing Expedia's basic risk indicators provides investors with a structured view of the risk-return trade-off for expedia stock. By identifying the level of risk embedded in Expedia's investment, investors can make informed decisions about position sizing.
| Mean Deviation | 2.33 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.66 | |||
| Variance | 13.42 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Expedia
The amount of media and story coverage tied to Expedia Group can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
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Expedia Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to Expedia Group matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. A disciplined short-interest review can make timing decisions more informed under rising skepticism.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 131.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 7.3 B |