ExlService Holdings Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| EXLS Stock | USD 30.92 0.17 0.55% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing reference data for ExlService Holdings is derived from the equity's published trading history. Forecast values and accuracy indicators are summarized on this page for reference.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ExlService Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 30.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.63 and the sum of the absolute errors of 37.88.When ExlService Holdings prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any ExlService Holdings trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent ExlService Holdings observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. All forecast values on this page for ExlService Holdings are Double Exponential Smoothing reference data derived from historical price series. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 22nd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ExlService Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 30.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.63 , mean absolute percentage error of 1.41 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 37.88 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ExlService Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ExlService Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest ExlService Holdings | ExlService Holdings Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for ExlService Holdings uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. At the moment, the model places downside around 27.70 and upside around 34.02 for the forecasting period.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ExlService Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ExlService Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1467 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6313 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0185 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 37.88 |
Other Forecasting Options for ExlService Holdings
For both new and experienced investors in ExlService, the ability to analyze ExlService Holdings' price movement is a fundamental investment skill. Price chart noise in ExlService Stock can create false signals and mislead investment decisions.ExlService Holdings Related Equities
The following equities are related to ExlService Holdings within the Industrials space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing ExlService Holdings against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
ExlService Holdings Market Strength Events
Tracking market strength indicators for ExlService Holdings provides context for understanding the momentum dynamics of the stock in real time. These signals support informed decisions about when to enter or exit positions in ExlService Holdings for maximum return potential.
| Accumulation Distribution | 87680.96 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.2208 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 30.92 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 30.92 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.09 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.17 |
ExlService Holdings Risk Indicators
Properly assessing ExlService Holdings' risk indicators is a prerequisite for building reliable price forecasts. Identifying and quantifying the risks associated with ExlService Holdings' allows investors to make better-informed decisions about accepting or hedging their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 1.76 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.06 | |||
| Variance | 9.38 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for ExlService Holdings
Story coverage around ExlService Holdings often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.
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ExlService Holdings Short Properties
Short-interest signals around ExlService Holdings can help investors judge whether skeptical positioning is starting to pressure price predictability and market tone. This is most valuable when investors want to know whether bearish pressure is starting to shape the market's reaction function.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 162.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 328.4 M |
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