EXCO Resources Pink Sheet Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| EXCE Stock | USD 19.15 -0.10 -0.52% |
Momentum 49
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
This section relates EXCO Resources headline activity to recent price behavior and peer context.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of EXCO Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 19.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.11.EXCO Resources after-hype prediction price | USD 19.15 |
Hype signals are presented as complementary context to forecasting, technicals, analyst estimates, earnings, and momentum.
EXCO |
EXCO Resources Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine EXCO price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for EXCO using various technical indicators. When you analyze EXCO charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
EXCO Resources Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 11th of March 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of EXCO Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 19.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.09 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.11 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict EXCO Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that EXCO Resources' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
EXCO Resources Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest EXCO Resources | EXCO Resources Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
EXCO Resources Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for EXCO Resources uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of EXCO Resources pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent EXCO Resources pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0125 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1518 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0079 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 9.11 |
The concept of mean reversion suggests that EXCO Resources' price will eventually return toward its long-run average. High prices may deter value investors, while unusually low prices often attract buyers who anticipate a recovery.
EXCO Resources After-Hype Price Density Analysis
The price distribution graph for EXCO Resources visualizes the statistical uncertainty around our prediction model's output. Investors should interpret the full distribution of EXCO Resources' outcomes, not just the central tendency, when making decisions.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
EXCO Resources Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
The downside and upside margins for EXCO Resources after major news events are estimated from historical precedent. EXCO Resources' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 17.60 and 20.70, respectively. This approach captures the empirical distribution of EXCO Resources' short-term price reactions without assuming any particular model of future behavior.
Current Value
The after-hype framework applied to EXCO Resources assumes a 3 months review window and focuses on post-sentiment normalization rather than raw momentum. This view is most useful when investors want to compare sentiment-driven price extension with a more measured post-news scenario.
EXCO Resources Pink Sheet Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as EXCO Resources is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading EXCO Resources backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with EXCO Resources, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.08 | 1.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events | 0 Events | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
19.15 | 19.15 | 0.00 |
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EXCO Resources Hype Timeline
EXCO Resources is currently traded for 19.15. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. EXCO is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.08%. %. The volatility of related hype on EXCO Resources is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 19.15. The company recorded a loss per share of 8.43. EXCO Resources last dividend was issued on the 18th of September 2014. The entity completed a 1:15 stock split on 13th of June 2017. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in a few days. Use Historical Fundamental Analysis of EXCO Resources to cross-verify projections for EXCO Resources. The historical view provides additional context.EXCO Resources Related Hype Analysis
The relationship between EXCO Resources and its sector peers means that news affecting one company often reverberates across EXCO Resources' competitive landscape. Tracking peer hype helps investors anticipate EXCO Resources's likely short-term price behavior.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| RZREF | Razor Energy Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| WDGJY | John Wood Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| CEIEF | Coelacanth Energy | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.74 | 0.03 | 3.33 | -3.23 | 13.97 | |
| HZNFF | Horizon Oil Limited | 0.00 | 0 per month | 9.36 | 0.12 | 46.15 | -25.00 | 135.00 | |
| EEGUF | Empire Energy Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.44 | 0.04 | 5.88 | -5.26 | 17.03 | |
| FECCF | Frontera Energy Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.98 | 0.21 | 7.95 | -2.92 | 42.15 | |
| UNTC | Unit Corporation | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.16 | 0.08 | 2.22 | -1.83 | 5.03 | |
| OILSF | Saturn Oil Gas | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.64 | 0.19 | 5.52 | -4.98 | 13.42 | |
| PEGIY | Energi Mega Persada | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| ENQUF | EnQuest PLC | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.21 | 9.52 | -7.14 | 22.98 |
Other Forecasting Options for EXCO Resources
Whether a novice or experienced investor, anyone considering EXCO needs to understand the dynamics of EXCO Resources' price movement. Price charts for EXCO Pink Sheet contain a significant amount of noise that can distort investment decisions.EXCO Resources Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with EXCO Resources pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of EXCO Resources could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing EXCO Resources by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
EXCO Resources Market Strength Events
Analyzing market strength indicators for EXCO Resources enables investors to understand how the pink sheet performs relative to overall market momentum. These indicators are valuable tools for identifying when to enter or exit positions in EXCO Resources.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 19.15 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 19.15 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.05 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.10 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 49.27 |
EXCO Resources Risk Indicators
Identifying and analyzing EXCO Resources' key risk indicators is a foundational step in projecting how its price may evolve. This process helps investors quantify the risk associated with EXCO Resources' and decide how to manage it.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9912 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.8576 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.68 | |||
| Variance | 2.83 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.28 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.7354 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -2.24 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for EXCO Resources
Coverage intensity for EXCO Resources matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Story coverage on Macroaxis is built for readers who approach markets from different levels of experience but share the same need for disciplined investment context. Used well, these stories become part of a broader workflow built around idea generation, validation, and risk-adjusted portfolio design.
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EXCO Resources financial ratios help frame valuation context across profits, cash flow, and enterprise value. They help compare EXCO across valuation measures.