ProShares UltraShort Etf Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| EWV Etf | USD 23.43 0.36 1.56% |
Momentum
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
The hype context for ProShares UltraShort MSCI summarizes headline response alongside peer coverage. Sentiment indicators for ProShares UltraShort are summarized using options positioning and short interest.
ProShares UltraShort Implied Volatility | 0.95 |
ProShares UltraShort's implied volatility is one of the most watched metrics in options trading. Combined with historical volatility and the current option skew, it provides a comprehensive picture of how the market perceives risk in ProShares UltraShort shares.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ProShares UltraShort MSCI on the next trading day is expected to be 23.69 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.44 and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.80.ProShares UltraShort after-hype prediction price | $ 23.07 |
This sentiment summary adds context across forecasting, technical, analyst, and earnings perspectives for the ETF.
ProShares | Build AI portfolio with ProShares Etf |
Rule 16 Summary for current ProShares contract - Performance Context
Rule 16 converts implied volatility into an estimated daily move of about 0.0594% for 2026-04-17 options. This context is informational: with ProShares UltraShort near $ 23.43, the daily move estimate is $ 0.0139 .
Open Interest Metrics for ProShares 2026-04-17 Contracts
Open interest counts active ProShares UltraShort option contracts and frames participation alongside price behavior.
ProShares UltraShort Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine ProShares price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for ProShares using various technical indicators. When you analyze ProShares charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 14th of March 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ProShares UltraShort MSCI on the next trading day is expected to be 23.69 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.44 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.35 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.80 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ProShares Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ProShares UltraShort's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Etf Forecast Pattern
| Backtest ProShares UltraShort | ProShares UltraShort Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for ProShares UltraShort MSCI uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ProShares UltraShort etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ProShares UltraShort etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0237 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4373 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0199 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 25.8015 |
The mean reversion tendency in ProShares UltraShort's price is a well-documented phenomenon that disciplined investors can exploit by identifying when price has diverged substantially from fundamental and historical anchors.
After-Hype Price Density Analysis
The probability distribution chart for ProShares UltraShort displays the range and likelihood of predicted price outcomes based on ProShares UltraShort's historical volatility and news impact patterns. Use the full distribution - not just the central estimate - to understand the true risk and reward.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
The after-hype price analysis for ProShares UltraShort uses ProShares UltraShort's historical news coverage to estimate statistically significant upside and downside price boundaries for the session following a major headline.
Current Value
The after-hype framework applied to ProShares UltraShort MSCI assumes a 3 months review window and focuses on post-sentiment normalization rather than raw momentum. This view is most useful when investors want to compare sentiment-driven price extension with a more measured post-news scenario.
Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as ProShares UltraShort is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading ProShares UltraShort backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with ProShares UltraShort, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.08 | 2.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events | 2 Events | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
23.43 | 23.07 | 0.00 |
|
Hype Timeline
On the 13th of March 2026 ProShares UltraShort MSCI is traded for 23.43. The ETF stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. ProShares is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.08%. %. The volatility of related hype on ProShares UltraShort is about 20153.85%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 23.43. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in a few days. Historical Fundamental Analysis of ProShares UltraShort provides a cross-check on projections for ProShares UltraShort. The view supplies historical context for the projection discussion.Related Hype Analysis
Analyzing ProShares UltraShort's direct competitors. news reactions provides a leading indicator for how ProShares UltraShort may respond to comparable market events. The peer hype analysis table captures key risk and sentiment metrics across ProShares UltraShort's competitive set, helping investors anticipate.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BZQ | ProShares UltraShort MSCI | -0.08 | 1 per month | 0.00 | -0.11 | 6.16 | -4.88 | 14.57 | |
| SBB | ProShares Short SmallCap600 | -0.25 | 2 per month | 1.05 | 0.05 | 1.68 | -1.55 | 4.56 | |
| KBAB | KraneShares 2x Long | 0.09 | 1 per month | 0.00 | -0.07 | 10.04 | -6.80 | 30.44 | |
| EEV | ProShares UltraShort MSCI | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | -0.04 | 4.42 | -4.37 | 14.63 | |
| FRIZ | Franklin Dividend Growth | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | -0.01 | 0.78 | -0.86 | 2.84 | |
| FXP | ProShares UltraShort FTSE | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.29 | 0.13 | 3.55 | -3.53 | 11.01 | |
| BNDS | Series Portfolios Trust | -0.13 | 1 per month | 0.00 | 0.38 | 0.29 | -0.30 | 0.82 | |
| MUNB | Northern Funds | 0.08 | 2 per month | 0.06 | 0.46 | 0.16 | -0.22 | 0.60 | |
| MYCM | SPDR SSGA My2033 | -0.07 | 2 per month | 0.00 | 0.18 | 0.36 | -0.40 | 0.89 | |
| SEPI | Shelton Equity Premium | 0.23 | 1 per month | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.89 | -1.34 | 3.46 |
Other Forecasting Options for ProShares UltraShort
For any investor considering ProShares, ProShares UltraShort's price movement is the central factor in determining investment viability. The noise present in ProShares Etf price charts can distort investment decisions if not properly addressed.ProShares UltraShort Related Equities
The following equities are related to ProShares UltraShort within the Trading--Inverse Equity space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing ProShares UltraShort against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
ProShares UltraShort Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for ProShares UltraShort etf help investors evaluate the security's behavior relative to ongoing market conditions. These tools support better market timing and help identify entry and exit signals for ProShares UltraShort MSCI.
ProShares UltraShort Risk Indicators
The analysis of ProShares UltraShort's basic risk indicators is a key input for accurate price forecasting and sound investment decisions. Understanding the risk in ProShares UltraShort's investment allows investors to make informed choices about accepting or mitigating that exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 1.77 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.51 | |||
| Variance | 6.32 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for ProShares UltraShort
Coverage intensity for ProShares UltraShort MSCI matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Story coverage on Macroaxis is built for readers who approach markets from different levels of experience but share the same need for disciplined investment context. Used well, these stories become part of a broader workflow built around idea generation, validation, and risk-adjusted portfolio design.
Story Categories
Currently Trending Categories
More Resources for ProShares Etf Analysis
A structured review of ProShares UltraShort MSCI often starts with core financial statements and trend context. Ratios and trend metrics help frame ProShares UltraShort's operating context. Selected reports below provide context for ProShares Etf:Historical Fundamental Analysis of ProShares UltraShort provides a cross-check on projections for ProShares UltraShort. The view supplies historical context for the projection discussion. Analysis related to ProShares UltraShort should be read together with other portfolio and risk tools before capital is reallocated. That is especially important when the goal is to improve the overall mix of instruments already held. You can also try the Alpha Finder module to use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk.
Market capitalization and book value offer complementary views of ProShares UltraShort MSCI — the first driven by investor sentiment, the second by accounting standards. Value and price for ProShares UltraShort are related but not identical, and they can diverge across cycles. Trading price represents the transaction level agreed by market participants.
Value and price for ProShares UltraShort are related but not identical, and they can diverge across cycles. Reviewing financial results, valuation ratios, and competitive positioning helps frame the value discussion. Market price reflects the current exchange level formed by active bids and offers.