Evergy Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing

EVRG Stock  USD 81.11  0.71  0.88%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing reference data for Evergy is derived from the equity's published trading history. The resulting forecast and deviation statistics are presented as reference data for informational context. Forecast values and accuracy statistics are presented for informational purposes. All values shown are derived from publicly available market data.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Evergy on the next trading day is expected to be 81.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.76 and the sum of the absolute errors of 44.78.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Evergy observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Evergy observations. The forecast reference data presented here for Evergy reflects Triple Exponential Smoothing model output and is intended as reference material for analytical use.
Triple exponential smoothing for Evergy - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Evergy prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Evergy price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Evergy.

Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Evergy on the next trading day is expected to be 81.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.76 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.85 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 44.78 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Evergy Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Evergy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Evergy  Evergy Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Forecasted Value

Forecasting Evergy for the next session involves measuring the model's historical ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 79.97 on the downside to about 82.11 on the upside.
Market Value
81.11
81.04
Expected Value
82.11
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Evergy stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Evergy stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0983
MADMean absolute deviation0.7589
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0097
SAESum of the absolute errors44.7769
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Evergy observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Evergy observations.

Other Forecasting Options for Evergy

Fibonacci retracement levels applied to Evergy Stock price swings identify potential support and resistance zones. Extreme price moves in Evergy occur more frequently than standard risk models assume. Support and resistance levels derived from Evergy's historical data identify zones where buying or selling pressure has stalled moves. A volume spike without a corresponding price move can signal accumulation or distribution ahead of a directional breakout.

Evergy Related Equities

These stocks within the Utilities space are often compared to Evergy by analysts and fund managers in the sector. Revenue and margin checks across this group help investors set expectations for Evergy's results. Falling behind peers on key ratios may signal headwinds or execution issues worth looking into. These checks provide a starting point for deeper study of Evergy's strengths and weak spots.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Evergy Market Strength Events

Tracking market strength indicators for Evergy provides context for understanding stock momentum dynamics. Tracking these indicators helps identify periods where trading Evergy is likely to be most rewarding. These tools are essential for timing trades in Evergy with a quantitative framework. Market strength indicators for Evergy are most useful when viewed as part of a broader analytical framework.

Evergy Risk Indicators

Properly assessing Evergy's risk indicators is a prerequisite for building reliable price forecasts. This analysis provides context for determining the appropriate level of risk to accept when holding Evergy's. Analyzing Evergy's risk indicators provides a critical input for investment risk management. By quantifying the risk in Evergy's investment, investors can make more informed decisions about hedging strategies.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Evergy

The amount of media and story coverage tied to Evergy can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.

Evergy Short Properties

Short-interest signals around Evergy can help investors judge whether skeptical positioning is starting to pressure price predictability and market tone. The stronger read compares short sentiment with trend behavior, volume, and the broader market narrative.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding233.6 M
Cash And Short Term Investments25.4 M

More Resources for Evergy Stock Analysis

A baseline understanding of Evergy is formed through its financial statements and trends. These ratios help explain how earnings, efficiency, and value creation are connected.