Evolent Health Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| EVH Stock | USD 2.67 -0.35 -11.59% |
This reference page covers Simple Exponential Smoothing forecast output for Evolent Health, including the projected price and deviation metrics. The model is fitted to available historical daily prices.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Evolent Health on the next trading day is projected to be 2.67 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.1 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.98.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Evolent Health forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Evolent Health observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. All forecast values on this page for Evolent Health are Simple Exponential Smoothing reference data derived from historical price series. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 19th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Evolent Health on the next trading day is expected to be 2.67 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.1 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.02 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.98 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Evolent Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Evolent Health's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Evolent Health | Evolent Health Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Evolent Health uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. The current forecast range spans downside near 0.03 and upside near 7.34.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Evolent Health stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Evolent Health stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.3926 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0217 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0997 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0303 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 5.98 |
Other Forecasting Options for Evolent Health
Price movement is the most critical factor for any investor assessing the potential of Evolent as an investment. The noise inherent in Evolent Stock price charts can obscure the underlying direction and make investment decisions more challenging.Evolent Health Related Equities
The following equities are related to Evolent Health within the Health Care space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Evolent Health against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Evolent Health Market Strength Events
For investors in Evolent Health, market strength indicators provide essential context about how the stock responds to prevailing market trends. These tools support more informed decisions about when to trade Evolent Health for maximum effect.
Evolent Health Risk Indicators
Identifying and analyzing Evolent Health's risk indicators provides investors with important context for price forecasting and investment decision-making. By understanding how much risk is embedded in Evolent Health's investment, investors can make better choices about position sizing,.
| Mean Deviation | 2.72 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.32 | |||
| Variance | 18.68 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Evolent Health
A coverage review of Evolent Health helps investors see when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.
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Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Evolent Health Short Properties
A short-interest review of Evolent Health helps investors understand whether skepticism in the market is becoming more influential. This is most valuable when investors want to know whether bearish pressure is starting to shape the market's reaction function.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 114.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 151.9 M |