Evaxion Biotech Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

EVAX Stock  USD 4.04  0.15  3.58%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Evaxion Biotech AS on the next trading day is expected to be 4.63 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.38 and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.40. Evaxion Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the rsi of Evaxion Biotech's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Evaxion Biotech's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Evaxion Biotech AS, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Evaxion Biotech hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Evaxion Biotech AS from the perspective of Evaxion Biotech response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Evaxion Biotech AS on the next trading day is expected to be 4.63 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.38 and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.40.

Evaxion Biotech after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 4.04  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Evaxion Biotech to cross-verify your projections.

Evaxion Biotech Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Evaxion price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Evaxion using various technical indicators. When you analyze Evaxion charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Evaxion Biotech price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Evaxion Biotech Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 25th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Evaxion Biotech AS on the next trading day is expected to be 4.63 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.38, mean absolute percentage error of 0.21, and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.40.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Evaxion Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Evaxion Biotech's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Evaxion Biotech Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Evaxion BiotechEvaxion Biotech Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Evaxion Biotech Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Evaxion Biotech's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Evaxion Biotech's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.04 and 10.52, respectively. We have considered Evaxion Biotech's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
4.04
4.63
Expected Value
10.52
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Evaxion Biotech stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Evaxion Biotech stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.3972
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.3774
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0697
SAESum of the absolute errors23.3995
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Evaxion Biotech AS historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Evaxion Biotech

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Evaxion Biotech AS. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.204.049.93
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.203.949.83
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Evaxion Biotech. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Evaxion Biotech's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Evaxion Biotech's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Evaxion Biotech AS.

Evaxion Biotech After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Evaxion Biotech at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Evaxion Biotech or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Evaxion Biotech, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Evaxion Biotech Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Evaxion Biotech's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Evaxion Biotech's historical news coverage. Evaxion Biotech's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.20 and 9.93, respectively. We have considered Evaxion Biotech's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
4.04
4.04
After-hype Price
9.93
Upside
Evaxion Biotech is risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Evaxion Biotech AS is based on 3 months time horizon.

Evaxion Biotech Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Evaxion Biotech is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Evaxion Biotech backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Evaxion Biotech, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.51 
5.90
  0.14 
  0.08 
10 Events / Month
6 Events / Month
In about 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
4.04
4.04
0.00 
2,185  
Notes

Evaxion Biotech Hype Timeline

Evaxion Biotech AS is currently traded for 4.04. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.14, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.08. Evaxion is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.51%. %. The volatility of related hype on Evaxion Biotech is about 3687.5%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 3.96. About 18.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The book value of Evaxion Biotech was currently reported as 2.61. The company recorded a loss per share of 4.0. Evaxion Biotech AS had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 1:5 split on the 14th of January 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Evaxion Biotech to cross-verify your projections.

Evaxion Biotech Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Evaxion Biotech's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Evaxion Biotech's future price movements. Getting to know how Evaxion Biotech's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Evaxion Biotech may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
RVPHReviva Pharmaceuticals Holdings(0.27)6 per month 0.00 (0.03) 10.71 (13.24) 75.31 
MURAMural Oncology Plc(0.27)12 per month 0.00 (0.20) 0.96 (0.95) 4.77 
ANVSAnnovis Bio 0.07 26 per month 5.39  0.1  14.79 (9.57) 41.06 
PYPDPolyPid(0.27)3 per month 1.56  0.18  4.14 (2.58) 13.02 
GBIOGeneration Bio Co(0.27)4 per month 0.00 (0.09) 3.39 (3.99) 12.30 
BCABBioatla(0.27)10 per month 0.00 (0.09) 15.28 (16.25) 54.11 
VERUVeru Inc 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.11) 6.07 (8.06) 16.36 
SABSSAB Biotherapeutics(0.07)8 per month 2.94  0.12  7.97 (4.05) 22.52 
CELUCelularity 0.02 7 per month 0.00 (0.12) 9.01 (8.97) 26.97 
BTAIBioXcel Therapeutics(0.27)23 per month 0.00 (0.06) 8.90 (7.32) 21.49 

Other Forecasting Options for Evaxion Biotech

For every potential investor in Evaxion, whether a beginner or expert, Evaxion Biotech's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Evaxion Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Evaxion. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Evaxion Biotech's price trends.

Evaxion Biotech Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Evaxion Biotech stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Evaxion Biotech could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Evaxion Biotech by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Evaxion Biotech Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Evaxion Biotech stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Evaxion Biotech shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Evaxion Biotech stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Evaxion Biotech AS entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Evaxion Biotech Risk Indicators

The analysis of Evaxion Biotech's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Evaxion Biotech's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting evaxion stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Evaxion Biotech

The number of cover stories for Evaxion Biotech depends on current market conditions and Evaxion Biotech's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Evaxion Biotech is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Evaxion Biotech's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

Evaxion Biotech Short Properties

Evaxion Biotech's future price predictability will typically decrease when Evaxion Biotech's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Evaxion Biotech AS often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Evaxion Biotech's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Evaxion Biotech's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding1.1 M
Cash And Short Term Investments5.1 M

Additional Tools for Evaxion Stock Analysis

When running Evaxion Biotech's price analysis, check to measure Evaxion Biotech's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Evaxion Biotech is operating at the current time. Most of Evaxion Biotech's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Evaxion Biotech's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Evaxion Biotech's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Evaxion Biotech to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.