Elbit Systems Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| ESLT Stock | USD 708.85 4.28 0.60% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Elbit Systems on the next trading day is expected to be 711.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 9.20 and the sum of the absolute errors of 542.63. Elbit Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength indicator of Elbit Systems' share price is above 70 at this time suggesting that the stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling Elbit, making its price go up or down. Momentum 73
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.582 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 3.0967 | EPS Estimate Current Year 12.2174 | EPS Estimate Next Year 13.7993 | Wall Street Target Price 573.6 |
Using Elbit Systems hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Elbit Systems from the perspective of Elbit Systems response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Elbit Systems using Elbit Systems' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Elbit using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Elbit Systems' stock price.
Elbit Systems Short Interest
An investor who is long Elbit Systems may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Elbit Systems and may potentially protect profits, hedge Elbit Systems with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 474.7165 | Short Percent 0.0041 | Short Ratio 1.03 | Shares Short Prior Month 123.4 K | 50 Day MA 553.1178 |
Elbit Systems Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Elbit Systems' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Elbit. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Elbit can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Elbit Systems. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Elbit Systems Implied Volatility | 0.65 |
Elbit Systems' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Elbit Systems stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Elbit Systems' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Elbit Systems stock will not fluctuate a lot when Elbit Systems' options are near their expiration.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Elbit Systems on the next trading day is expected to be 711.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 9.20 and the sum of the absolute errors of 542.63. Elbit Systems after-hype prediction price | USD 708.85 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Elbit Systems to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Elbit contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Elbit Systems will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0406% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Elbit Systems trading at USD 708.85, that is roughly USD 0.29 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Elbit Systems' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Elbit Systems options at the current volatility level of 0.65%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Elbit Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Elbit Systems' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Elbit Systems' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Elbit Systems stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Elbit Systems' open interest, investors have to compare it to Elbit Systems' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Elbit Systems is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Elbit. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Elbit Systems Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Elbit price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Elbit using various technical indicators. When you analyze Elbit charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Elbit Systems Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Elbit Systems on the next trading day is expected to be 711.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 9.20, mean absolute percentage error of 153.55, and the sum of the absolute errors of 542.63.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Elbit Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Elbit Systems' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Elbit Systems Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Elbit Systems | Elbit Systems Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Elbit Systems Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Elbit Systems' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Elbit Systems' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 709.78 and 714.11, respectively. We have considered Elbit Systems' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Elbit Systems stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Elbit Systems stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -1.5332 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 9.1971 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0168 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 542.6291 |
Predictive Modules for Elbit Systems
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Elbit Systems. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Elbit Systems After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Elbit Systems at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Elbit Systems or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Elbit Systems, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Elbit Systems Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Elbit Systems' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Elbit Systems' historical news coverage. Elbit Systems' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 706.70 and 711.00, respectively. We have considered Elbit Systems' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Elbit Systems is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Elbit Systems is based on 3 months time horizon.
Elbit Systems Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Elbit Systems is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Elbit Systems backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Elbit Systems, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.65 | 2.16 | 14.57 | 1.15 | 9 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
708.85 | 708.85 | 0.00 |
|
Elbit Systems Hype Timeline
Elbit Systems is currently traded for 708.85. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 14.57, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 1.15. Elbit is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 9.63%. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.65%. %. The volatility of related hype on Elbit Systems is about 122.24%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 710.00. About 42.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.21. Elbit Systems recorded earning per share (EPS) of 9.85. The entity last dividend was issued on the 22nd of December 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Elbit Systems to cross-verify your projections.Elbit Systems Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Elbit Systems' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Elbit Systems' future price movements. Getting to know how Elbit Systems' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Elbit Systems may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CW | Curtiss Wright | 7.65 | 9 per month | 1.78 | 0.1 | 3.77 | (3.01) | 9.64 | |
| BWXT | BWX Technologies | (0.44) | 4 per month | 3.13 | (0.02) | 4.28 | (5.42) | 14.18 | |
| WWD | Woodward | 1.79 | 7 per month | 1.22 | 0.16 | 3.61 | (2.23) | 16.03 | |
| AER | AerCap Holdings NV | 1.73 | 5 per month | 0.68 | 0.12 | 2.39 | (1.63) | 11.63 | |
| AVAV | AeroVironment | (0.44) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 5.91 | (7.75) | 31.86 | |
| HUBB | Hubbell | 5.74 | 24 per month | 1.61 | 0.06 | 3.55 | (2.91) | 8.35 | |
| VLTO | Veralto | (0.20) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 1.43 | (1.70) | 8.53 | |
| TXT | Textron | 1.88 | 8 per month | 0.89 | 0.12 | 2.26 | (1.64) | 5.05 | |
| DOV | Dover | 0.40 | 8 per month | 0.88 | 0.16 | 3.12 | (2.09) | 10.70 | |
| NVT | nVent Electric PLC | (0.44) | 4 per month | 2.59 | 0.04 | 3.81 | (3.99) | 16.83 |
Other Forecasting Options for Elbit Systems
For every potential investor in Elbit, whether a beginner or expert, Elbit Systems' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Elbit Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Elbit. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Elbit Systems' price trends.Elbit Systems Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Elbit Systems stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Elbit Systems could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Elbit Systems by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Elbit Systems Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Elbit Systems stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Elbit Systems shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Elbit Systems stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Elbit Systems entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 708.85 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 708.85 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (2.14) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (4.28) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 73.39 |
Elbit Systems Risk Indicators
The analysis of Elbit Systems' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Elbit Systems' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting elbit stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.62 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.35 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.12 | |||
| Variance | 4.47 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.37 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.83 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.87) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Elbit Systems
The number of cover stories for Elbit Systems depends on current market conditions and Elbit Systems' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Elbit Systems is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Elbit Systems' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Elbit Systems Short Properties
Elbit Systems' future price predictability will typically decrease when Elbit Systems' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Elbit Systems often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Elbit Systems' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Elbit Systems' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 44.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 266.7 M |
Additional Tools for Elbit Stock Analysis
When running Elbit Systems' price analysis, check to measure Elbit Systems' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Elbit Systems is operating at the current time. Most of Elbit Systems' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Elbit Systems' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Elbit Systems' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Elbit Systems to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.