Element Solutions Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| ESI Stock | USD 29.45 0.35 1.20% |
Element Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Element Solutions' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 2nd of February 2026, The relative strength index (RSI) of Element Solutions' share price is at 57 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Element Solutions, making its price go up or down. Momentum 57
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.04) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.3664 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.4822 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.7295 | Wall Street Target Price 33.1 |
Using Element Solutions hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Element Solutions from the perspective of Element Solutions response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Element Solutions using Element Solutions' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Element using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Element Solutions' stock price.
Element Solutions Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Element Solutions' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Element. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Element Solutions stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 24.6629 | Short Percent 0.068 | Short Ratio 5.87 | Shares Short Prior Month 12.6 M | 50 Day MA 26.7754 |
Element Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Element Solutions on the next trading day is expected to be 29.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.44 and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.58.Element Solutions Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Element Solutions' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Element. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Element can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Element Solutions. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Element Solutions' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Element Solutions.
Element Solutions Implied Volatility | 0.76 |
Element Solutions' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Element Solutions stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Element Solutions' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Element Solutions stock will not fluctuate a lot when Element Solutions' options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Element Solutions on the next trading day is expected to be 29.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.44 and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.58. Element Solutions after-hype prediction price | USD 29.5 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Element Solutions to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Element contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Element Solutions will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0475% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Element Solutions trading at USD 29.45, that is roughly USD 0.014 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Element Solutions' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Element Solutions options at the current volatility level of 0.76%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Element Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Element Solutions' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Element Solutions' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Element Solutions stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Element Solutions' open interest, investors have to compare it to Element Solutions' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Element Solutions is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Element. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Element Solutions Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Element price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Element using various technical indicators. When you analyze Element charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Element Solutions Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 3rd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Element Solutions on the next trading day is expected to be 29.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.44, mean absolute percentage error of 0.34, and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.58.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Element Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Element Solutions' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Element Solutions Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Element Solutions | Element Solutions Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Element Solutions Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Element Solutions' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Element Solutions' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 27.23 and 31.67, respectively. We have considered Element Solutions' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Element Solutions stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Element Solutions stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.2036 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.042 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.443 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0166 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 26.58 |
Predictive Modules for Element Solutions
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Element Solutions. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Element Solutions' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Element Solutions After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Element Solutions at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Element Solutions or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Element Solutions, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Element Solutions Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Element Solutions' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Element Solutions' historical news coverage. Element Solutions' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 27.28 and 31.72, respectively. We have considered Element Solutions' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Element Solutions is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Element Solutions is based on 3 months time horizon.
Element Solutions Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Element Solutions is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Element Solutions backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Element Solutions, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.15 | 2.22 | 0.05 | 0.12 | 9 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
29.45 | 29.50 | 0.17 |
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Element Solutions Hype Timeline
On the 2nd of February Element Solutions is traded for 29.45. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.05, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.12. Element is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 29.5 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.17%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.15%. The volatility of related hype on Element Solutions is about 270.07%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 29.57. The company reported the last year's revenue of 2.46 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 244.2 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 1.05 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Element Solutions to cross-verify your projections.Element Solutions Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Element Solutions' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Element Solutions' future price movements. Getting to know how Element Solutions' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Element Solutions may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| EMN | Eastman Chemical | 0.33 | 11 per month | 1.76 | 0.06 | 4.94 | (3.60) | 9.74 | |
| AXTA | Axalta Coating Systems | (0.07) | 10 per month | 1.19 | 0.12 | 2.69 | (2.53) | 7.97 | |
| NEU | NewMarket | (6.66) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.25 | (2.77) | 11.14 | |
| BCPC | Balchem | (1.28) | 7 per month | 0.84 | 0.09 | 3.26 | (1.53) | 7.13 | |
| EXP | Eagle Materials | 5.80 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 3.89 | (3.07) | 9.39 | |
| HBM | Hudbay Minerals | 1.88 | 10 per month | 2.99 | 0.20 | 5.44 | (5.81) | 12.33 | |
| IAG | IAMGold | 0.64 | 7 per month | 3.31 | 0.18 | 5.49 | (5.22) | 20.71 | |
| LPX | Louisiana Pacific | 6.26 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 4.15 | (3.12) | 11.95 | |
| CMC | Commercial Metals | 1.31 | 8 per month | 1.21 | 0.18 | 3.71 | (1.90) | 8.69 | |
| TX | Ternium SA ADR | 0.01 | 10 per month | 1.51 | 0.10 | 2.69 | (2.99) | 6.55 |
Other Forecasting Options for Element Solutions
For every potential investor in Element, whether a beginner or expert, Element Solutions' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Element Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Element. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Element Solutions' price trends.Element Solutions Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Element Solutions stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Element Solutions could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Element Solutions by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Element Solutions Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Element Solutions stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Element Solutions shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Element Solutions stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Element Solutions entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Element Solutions Risk Indicators
The analysis of Element Solutions' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Element Solutions' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting element stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.65 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.73 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.18 | |||
| Variance | 4.77 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.53 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.98 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.97) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Element Solutions
The number of cover stories for Element Solutions depends on current market conditions and Element Solutions' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Element Solutions is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Element Solutions' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Element Solutions Short Properties
Element Solutions' future price predictability will typically decrease when Element Solutions' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Element Solutions often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Element Solutions' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Element Solutions' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 242.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 359.4 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Element Solutions to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Element Stock please use our How to Invest in Element Solutions guide.You can also try the Price Exposure Probability module to analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets.
Is there potential for Specialty Chemicals market expansion? Will Element introduce new products? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Element Solutions. Projected growth potential of Element fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Understanding fair value requires weighing current performance against future potential. All the valuation information about Element Solutions listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.04) | Dividend Share 0.32 | Earnings Share 0.97 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.017 |
Investors evaluate Element Solutions using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Element Solutions' intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Analysts utilize numerous techniques to assess fundamental value, seeking to purchase shares when trading prices fall beneath estimated intrinsic worth. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Element Solutions' market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Element Solutions' intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Element Solutions should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Conversely, Element Solutions' market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.