Europris ASA Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

EPR Stock  NOK 91.30  0.40  0.44%   
Europris Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of now, the value of RSI of Europris ASA's share price is approaching 42 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Europris ASA, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 42

 Sell Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Europris ASA's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Europris ASA and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Europris ASA's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Europris ASA, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Europris ASA hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Europris ASA from the perspective of Europris ASA response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Europris ASA on the next trading day is expected to be 90.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 73.31.

Europris ASA after-hype prediction price

    
  NOK 91.3  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Europris ASA to cross-verify your projections.

Europris ASA Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Europris price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Europris using various technical indicators. When you analyze Europris charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A naive forecasting model for Europris ASA is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Europris ASA value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Europris ASA Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Europris ASA on the next trading day is expected to be 90.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.18, mean absolute percentage error of 2.53, and the sum of the absolute errors of 73.31.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Europris Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Europris ASA's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Europris ASA Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Europris ASA  Europris ASA Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

Europris ASA Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Europris ASA's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Europris ASA's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 88.98 and 91.39, respectively. We have considered Europris ASA's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
91.30
90.18
Expected Value
91.39
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Europris ASA stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Europris ASA stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria120.877
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.1825
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0131
SAESum of the absolute errors73.3119
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Europris ASA. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Europris ASA. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Europris ASA

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Europris ASA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
90.0991.3092.51
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
90.6291.8393.04
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
89.1392.3895.63
Details

Europris ASA After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Europris ASA at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Europris ASA or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Europris ASA, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Europris ASA Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Europris ASA's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Europris ASA's historical news coverage. Europris ASA's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 90.09 and 92.51, respectively. We have considered Europris ASA's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
91.30
91.30
After-hype Price
92.51
Upside
Europris ASA is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Europris ASA is based on 3 months time horizon.

Europris ASA Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Europris ASA is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Europris ASA backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Europris ASA, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.08 
1.20
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
In a few days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
91.30
91.30
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Europris ASA Hype Timeline

Europris ASA is currently traded for 91.30on Oslo Stock Exchange of Norway. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Europris is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.08%. %. The volatility of related hype on Europris ASA is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 91.30. About 54.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Europris ASA was currently reported as 18.4. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.83. Europris ASA recorded earning per share (EPS) of 6.78. The entity last dividend was issued on the 21st of April 2023. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next projected press release will be in a few days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Europris ASA to cross-verify your projections.

Europris ASA Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Europris ASA's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Europris ASA's future price movements. Getting to know how Europris ASA's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Europris ASA may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
AUSSAustevoll Seafood ASA 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.15) 1.67 (1.72) 5.51 
GSFGrieg Seafood ASA 0.00 0 per month 1.33 (0.04) 2.59 (2.36) 9.97 
LSGLery Seafood Group 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.19) 1.78 (2.14) 7.16 
AKBMAker Biomarine AS 0.00 0 per month 1.44  0.05  3.74 (2.44) 7.86 
BAKKAPf Bakkafrost 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.06) 2.50 (2.74) 8.00 
ISLAXIcelandic Salmon As 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.08) 3.66 (3.78) 11.36 
DELIADellia Grp ASA 0.00 0 per month 2.05  0.13  7.59 (3.68) 35.94 
SALMESalmon Evolution Holding 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.10) 1.64 (2.12) 6.83 
AFISHArctic Fish Holding 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.06) 4.64 (7.84) 21.24 
ANDFAndfjord Salmon AS 0.00 0 per month 1.97 (0.01) 5.02 (3.17) 13.45 

Other Forecasting Options for Europris ASA

For every potential investor in Europris, whether a beginner or expert, Europris ASA's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Europris Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Europris. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Europris ASA's price trends.

Europris ASA Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Europris ASA stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Europris ASA could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Europris ASA by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Europris ASA Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Europris ASA stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Europris ASA shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Europris ASA stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Europris ASA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Europris ASA Risk Indicators

The analysis of Europris ASA's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Europris ASA's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting europris stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Europris ASA

The number of cover stories for Europris ASA depends on current market conditions and Europris ASA's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Europris ASA is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Europris ASA's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

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Europris ASA Short Properties

Europris ASA's future price predictability will typically decrease when Europris ASA's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Europris ASA often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Europris ASA's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Europris ASA's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding160.9 M
Cash And Short Term Investments567.3 M

Other Information on Investing in Europris Stock

Europris ASA financial ratios help investors to determine whether Europris Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Europris with respect to the benefits of owning Europris ASA security.