Ashmore Emerging Mutual Fund Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| EMXIX Fund | 13.67 0.08 0.59% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecast shown here for Ashmore Emerging is reference data produced from its historical price series. The projected value and error measures below serve as reference information. This data is provided for reference and analytical review. The Double Exponential Smoothing output serves as one input among many for analytical review.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ashmore Emerging Markets on the next trading day is expected to be 13.65 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.30.When Ashmore Emerging Markets prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Ashmore Emerging Markets trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Ashmore Emerging observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. This Double Exponential Smoothing reference page for Ashmore Emerging presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ashmore Emerging Markets on the next trading day is expected to be 13.65 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.04 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.30 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ashmore Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ashmore Emerging's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Ashmore Emerging | Ashmore Emerging Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for Ashmore Emerging Markets focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 12.18 on the downside to about 15.12 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ashmore Emerging mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ashmore Emerging mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0295 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.155 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0111 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 9.3005 |
Other Forecasting Options for Ashmore Emerging
The distribution of Ashmore Emerging's daily returns is typically non-normal, with fatter tails than a Gaussian model predicts. This can reveal hidden support and resistance zones in Ashmore Emerging's chart that simple price charts miss. The slope of Ashmore Emerging's linear regression channel quantifies trend direction and strength over a chosen lookback period. Divergences between OBV and price can foreshadow trend changes in Ashmore.Ashmore Emerging Related Equities
The peer firms below within the Diversified Emerging Mkts space can help frame Ashmore Emerging's pricing and running costs in context. Revenue and margin checks across this group help investors set expectations for Ashmore Emerging's results. Peer review is most useful when paired with absolute pricing and trend checks.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Ashmore Emerging Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Ashmore Emerging give insight into the mutual fund's responsiveness to broader forces. These indicators are useful for traders seeking optimal timing for positions in Ashmore Emerging Markets. Market strength analysis for Ashmore Emerging Markets works best when combined with volume and volatility data. For Ashmore Emerging, strength indicators are a practical complement to price and fundamental analysis.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 13.67 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 13.67 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.04 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.08 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 48.82 |
Ashmore Emerging Risk Indicators
A thorough review of Ashmore Emerging's risk indicators is an important first step in forecasting its price. Quantifying the risk involved in Ashmore Emerging's allows investors to make better decisions about entry, sizing, and hedging. The assessment of Ashmore Emerging's risk indicators plays a key role in managing investment exposure. Identifying the magnitude of risk in Ashmore Emerging's provides context to choose between accepting or hedging exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 1.06 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.43 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.43 | |||
| Variance | 2.04 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.98 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.05 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.12 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Ashmore Emerging
Story coverage around Ashmore Emerging Markets often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
Other Macroaxis Stories
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