ASHMORE EMERGING Mutual Fund Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| EMQAX Fund | USD 9.94 -0.11 -1.09% |
This reference page presents Double Exponential Smoothing forecast data for Ashmore Emerging Markets. The model output shown here is derived from ASHMORE EMERGING's historical price series and is provided for informational purposes.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ashmore Emerging Markets on the next trading day is expected to be 9.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.51.When Ashmore Emerging Markets prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Ashmore Emerging Markets trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent ASHMORE EMERGING observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. This Double Exponential Smoothing forecast data for Ashmore Emerging Markets is sourced from the most recent available trading data and is intended solely as reference information. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 22nd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ashmore Emerging Markets on the next trading day is expected to be 9.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.02 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.51 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ASHMORE Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ASHMORE EMERGING's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
Forecasting Ashmore Emerging Markets for the next session involves measuring the model's historical ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ASHMORE EMERGING mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ASHMORE EMERGING mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.012 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0934 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0091 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 5.51 |
Other Forecasting Options for ASHMORE EMERGING
For every potential investor in ASHMORE, whether a beginner or expert, ASHMORE EMERGING's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better.ASHMORE EMERGING Related Equities
The following equities are related to ASHMORE EMERGING within the Diversified Emerging Mkts space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing ASHMORE EMERGING against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
ASHMORE EMERGING Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how ASHMORE EMERGING mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading ASHMORE EMERGING shares will generate the highest return on.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 9.94 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 9.94 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.06 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.11 |
ASHMORE EMERGING Risk Indicators
The analysis of ASHMORE EMERGING's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ASHMORE EMERGING's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9126 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.18 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.23 | |||
| Variance | 1.52 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.98 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.38 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.90 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for ASHMORE EMERGING
The amount of media and story coverage tied to Ashmore Emerging Markets can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis publishes story content for a diverse readership that includes finance students, independent investors, money managers, and market-focused operating teams. What connects that audience is a focus on building stronger portfolios through better research, risk awareness, and comparative analysis.