Emera Incorporated Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| EMA Stock | 53.43 -0.07 -0.13% |
Momentum
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth -0.57 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.0344 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.5903 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.6397 | Wall Street Target Price 62.5 |
This section summarizes Emera Incorporated headline activity and related price response context. Sentiment is summarized using Emera Incorporated's options positioning and short interest activity.
Short Interest Detail for Emera Incorporated
Short interest data for Emera Incorporated is reported twice a month, providing a lagged but useful view of aggregate bearish positioning in Emera shares.
200 Day MA 47.9395 | Short Ratio 4.83 | Shares Short Prior Month 6.3 M | 50 Day MA 50.3526 | Shares Short 1.7 M |
RSI Oscillator - Emera
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Emera Incorporated on the next trading day is expected to be 53.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37 and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.90.Hype and Price Context: Emera Incorporated
Investor sentiment toward Emera reflects the aggregated optimism or pessimism of all market participants. Extremes in Emera Incorporated's sentiment have historically preceded significant reversals in price direction.
Overvalued stocks supported by excessive positive sentiment are vulnerable to sharp corrections when reality disappoints. Emera Incorporated's sentiment score helps gauge how much of its current price is justified by optimism alone.
Emera Incorporated Implied Volatility | 0.44 |
Emera Incorporated's implied volatility is a key input in option pricing models such as Black-Scholes. It is the only forward-looking variable in these models, making it the primary driver of option premium changes not explained by price moves in Emera Incorporated's stock.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Emera Incorporated on the next trading day is expected to be 53.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37 and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.90.Emera Incorporated after-hype prediction price | $ 53.1 |
The sentiment view is a companion to forecasting, technical studies, analyst estimates, and earnings trends.
Use Historical Fundamental Analysis of Emera Incorporated to cross-verify projections for Emera Incorporated. The view provides historical context for the projection set.Rule 16 Reference for the current Emera contract
Rule 16 applies implied volatility to estimate a daily move of roughly 2.75% across the 2026-06-18 option cycle. With Emera Incorporated trading near $ 53.43, that translates to about $ 1.47 per day in either direction.
Open Interest Context: Emera 2026-06-18 Options
Open interest summarizes open contracts on Emera Incorporated and offers neutral context on positioning.
Emera Incorporated Additional Predictive Modules
Predictive models for Emera Incorporated combine technical indicators with statistical methods to estimate probable price trajectories. Predictive accuracy varies by market regime - trending markets and range-bound markets favor different model types.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 18th of March 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Emera Incorporated on the next trading day is expected to be 53.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.25 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.90 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Emera Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Emera Incorporated's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Emera Incorporated | Emera Incorporated Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for Emera Incorporated focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. The current forecast range spans downside near 52.45 and upside near 54.39.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Emera Incorporated stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Emera Incorporated stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1017 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3712 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0074 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 21.9 |
While mean reversion in Emera Incorporated is a statistically observable tendency, it operates on uncertain timelines. Positions sized too aggressively against the trend can suffer sustained losses before reversion occurs.
After-Hype Price Density Analysis
One key insight from Emera Incorporated's price distribution analysis is that the most likely single outcome - the mode - is not necessarily the most important. The width and shape of Emera Incorporated's distribution determine how often extreme deviations from the central forecast occur.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
Historical analysis of Emera Incorporated reveals distinct patterns in how Emera Incorporated's price responds to different categories of news. Emera Incorporated's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 52.13 and 54.07, respectively. The most informative signals come from news categories where Emera Incorporated has shown consistent and predictable historical reactions.
Current Value
Macroaxis estimates the after-hype price of Emera Incorporated across a 3 months horizon to evaluate where the instrument could settle once headline distortion subsides. The objective is to separate event-driven enthusiasm from a more stable price path once the market absorbs the catalyst.
Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Emera Incorporated is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Emera Incorporated backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Emera Incorporated, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.18 | 0.97 | 0.03 | 0.10 | 12 Events | 8 Events | In 12 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
53.43 | 53.10 | 0.54 |
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Hype Timeline
On the 17th of March 2026 Emera Incorporated is traded for 53.43. The company has historical hype elasticity of -0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.1. Emera is expected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 53.1. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.54%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.18%. The volatility of related hype on Emera Incorporated is about 171.08%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 53.53. About 59.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.82. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Emera Incorporated has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.08. The company had its last dividend issued on the 30th of January 2026. The firm completed a 1:10 stock split on 3rd of November 2006. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in 12 days. Use Historical Fundamental Analysis of Emera Incorporated to cross-verify projections for Emera Incorporated. The view provides historical context for the projection set.Related Hype Analysis
Tracking the hype elasticity of Emera Incorporated's direct competitors provides a quantified measure of how much news about other companies in the sector affects Emera Incorporated's short-term price behavior.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| LNT | Alliant Energy Corp | 0.72 | 12 per month | 0.65 | 0.24 | 1.70 | -1.33 | 4.39 | |
| EVRG | Evergy | 0.56 | 11 per month | 0.70 | 0.23 | 2.07 | -1.13 | 4.16 | |
| SRE | Sempra Energy | -0.82 | 8 per month | 1.29 | 0.13 | 1.93 | -1.94 | 6.39 | |
| PNW | Pinnacle West Capital | 1.33 | 8 per month | 0.61 | 0.29 | 2.10 | -1.17 | 3.83 | |
| OGE | OGE Energy | 1.16 | 7 per month | 0.58 | 0.24 | 1.66 | -1.19 | 3.28 | |
| WTRG | Essential Utilities | -0.06 | 9 per month | 1.15 | 0.14 | 2.16 | -1.93 | 6.33 | |
| IDA | IDACORP | 2.98 | 9 per month | 0.80 | 0.22 | 2.15 | -1.41 | 5.11 | |
| FRMI | Fermi Inc | -0.53 | 9 per month | 0.00 | -0.08 | 11.92 | -10.11 | 33.84 | |
| CMS | CMS Energy | 0.83 | 11 per month | 0.67 | 0.21 | 1.37 | -1.26 | 3.92 | |
| SBS | Companhia de Saneamento | -0.50 | 9 per month | 2.01 | 0.11 | 3.78 | -4.23 | 9.72 |
Other Forecasting Options for Emera Incorporated
Any investor evaluating Emera must grapple with the challenge of interpreting Emera Incorporated's price movement accurately. Emera Stock price charts typically contain substantial noise that can complicate analysis and lead to poor decisions.Emera Incorporated Related Equities
The following equities are related to Emera Incorporated within the Utilities space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Emera Incorporated against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Emera Incorporated Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Emera Incorporated assess how the stock responds to ongoing changes in market conditions and investor sentiment. By monitoring these indicators, investors can identify the most opportune moments to trade Emera Incorporated.
Emera Incorporated Risk Indicators
Risk indicator analysis for Emera Incorporated is a critical component of accurate price forecasting and sound investment decision-making. By identifying how much risk is embedded in Emera Incorporated's investment, investors can decide how to position and protect their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 0.6831 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.6786 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.9435 | |||
| Variance | 0.8902 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.8472 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.4605 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.76 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Emera Incorporated
Coverage intensity for Emera Incorporated matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
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Emera Incorporated Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to Emera Incorporated matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. The stronger read compares short sentiment with trend behavior, volume, and the broader market narrative.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 299.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 364.7 M |
More Resources for Emera Stock Analysis
A comprehensive view of Emera Incorporated starts with financial statements and ratio context. Ratios and trend metrics help frame Emera Incorporated's operating context across reporting periods. Key reports that frame Emera Incorporated Stock are listed below:Use Historical Fundamental Analysis of Emera Incorporated to cross-verify projections for Emera Incorporated. The view provides historical context for the projection set. Before investing in Emera Stock, review our How to Buy Emera Incorporated guide for key considerations.Emera Incorporated currently shows ROE of 8.17%, market cap of 16.19 Billion. Investors get more value from Emera Incorporated analysis when it is combined with the construction and diversification tools listed below. Within the Utilities space, Emera Incorporated peer comparison and risk tools below help frame relative strengths and weaknesses. You can also try the Portfolio Optimization module to compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk.
Quarterly Earnings Growth -0.57 | Dividend Share 2.908 | Earnings Share 2.48 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.138 |
The market value of Emera Incorporated is measured differently than book value, which reflects Emera accounting equity. Emera Incorporated's market capitalization is 16.19 B. A P/B ratio of 1.82 indicates the market values Emera Incorporated above its accounting book value. Enterprise value stands at 32.28 B. The intrinsic value concept focuses on underlying worth, which can diverge from market price and book value. Valuation work aligns these measures into a single context.
The concept of value for Emera Incorporated differs from its quoted price, since each reflects a different lens. For Emera Incorporated, key inputs include a P/B ratio of 1.82, a profit margin of 12.41%, ROE of 8.17%, and revenue of 8.3 B. Where Emera Incorporated trades at any moment depends on the balance of buying and selling pressure.