Estee Lauder Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| EL Stock | USD 88.76 0.88 1.00% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing reference data for Estee Lauder is derived from the equity's published trading history. Forecast values and accuracy indicators are summarized on this page for reference.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Estee Lauder Companies on the next trading day is expected to be 88.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.25 and the sum of the absolute errors of 135.29.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Estee Lauder Companies forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Estee Lauder observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. All forecast values on this page for Estee Lauder Companies are Simple Exponential Smoothing reference data derived from historical price series. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 18th of March 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Estee Lauder Companies on the next trading day is expected to be 88.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.25 , mean absolute percentage error of 15.17 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 135.29 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Estee Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Estee Lauder's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Estee Lauder | Estee Lauder Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for Estee Lauder Companies focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Estee Lauder stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Estee Lauder stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.9921 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.2702 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.2548 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0219 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 135.29 |
Other Forecasting Options for Estee Lauder
For both new and experienced investors in Estee, the ability to analyze Estee Lauder's price movement is a fundamental investment skill. Price chart noise in Estee Stock can create false signals and mislead investment decisions.Estee Lauder Related Equities
The following equities are related to Estee Lauder within the Consumer Staples space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Estee Lauder against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Estee Lauder Market Strength Events
Tracking market strength indicators for Estee Lauder helps investors understand the momentum dynamics of the stock in real time. These signals support informed decisions about when to enter or exit positions in Estee Lauder Companies for maximum return potential.
Estee Lauder Risk Indicators
Properly assessing Estee Lauder's risk indicators is a prerequisite for building reliable price forecasts. Identifying and quantifying the risks associated with Estee Lauder's allows investors to make better-informed decisions about accepting or hedging their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 2.14 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.45 | |||
| Variance | 11.88 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Estee Lauder
A coverage review of Estee Lauder Companies helps investors see when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.
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Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Estee Lauder Short Properties
A short-interest review of Estee Lauder Companies helps investors understand whether skepticism in the market is becoming more influential. This is most valuable when investors want to know whether bearish pressure is starting to shape the market's reaction function.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 360.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.9 B |