Direxion Daily Etf Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| EDC Etf | USD 56.27 -3.77 -6.28% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecast reference data for Direxion Daily MSCI is based on the equity's recent trading history. This page summarizes the model output and key accuracy metrics for reference.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Direxion Daily MSCI on the next trading day is expected to be 56.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.10 and the sum of the absolute errors of 125.97.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Direxion Daily MSCI forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Direxion Daily observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. All Simple Exponential Smoothing forecast figures shown for Direxion Daily MSCI are reference data reflecting model output based on available historical prices. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 21st of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Direxion Daily MSCI on the next trading day is expected to be 56.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.10 , mean absolute percentage error of 8.05 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 125.97 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Direxion Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Direxion Daily's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Etf Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Direxion Daily | Direxion Daily Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Direxion Daily MSCI uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Direxion Daily etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Direxion Daily etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.3583 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0622 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.0995 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0318 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 125.97 |
Other Forecasting Options for Direxion Daily
Whether a novice or experienced investor, anyone considering Direxion needs to understand the dynamics of Direxion Daily's price movement. Price charts for Direxion Etf contain a significant amount of noise that can distort investment decisions.Direxion Daily Related Equities
The following equities are related to Direxion Daily within the Trading--Leveraged Equity space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Direxion Daily against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Direxion Daily Market Strength Events
Analyzing market strength indicators for Direxion Daily enables investors to understand how the etf performs relative to overall market momentum. These indicators are valuable tools for identifying when to enter or exit positions in Direxion Daily MSCI.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.94 | |||
| Day Median Price | 56.27 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 56.27 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -1.88 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -3.77 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 42.96 |
Direxion Daily Risk Indicators
Identifying and analyzing Direxion Daily's key risk indicators is a foundational step in projecting how its price may evolve. This process quantifies the risk associated with Direxion Daily's and decide how to manage it.
| Mean Deviation | 2.91 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.4 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.0 | |||
| Variance | 16.0 | |||
| Downside Variance | 21.18 | |||
| Semi Variance | 19.34 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -2.85 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Direxion Daily
Story coverage around Direxion Daily MSCI often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.
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More Resources for Direxion Etf Analysis
A structured review of Direxion Daily MSCI begins with its financial statements and overall trends. Financial ratios summarize performance across earnings and efficiency. The dataset reflects Direxion Daily's reporting across available periods. Key reports that frame Direxion Daily MSCI Etf are listed below:Use Historical Fundamental Analysis of Direxion Daily to cross-verify projections for Direxion Daily. The historical analysis frames Direxion Daily's projections against observed trends. The relationship between past fundamentals and projections varies by ETF and industry. The information is sourced from company financial filings. Direxion Daily currently shows P/E of 12.66. Investors get more value from Direxion Daily analysis when it is combined with the construction and diversification tools listed below. Direxion Daily analysis across multiple dimensions - risk, valuation, diversification - produces a more informed position-sizing decision. You can also try the Portfolio Analyzer module to portfolio analysis module that provides access to portfolio diagnostics and optimization engine.
Market capitalization and book value offer complementary views of Direxion Daily MSCI - the first driven by investor sentiment, the second by accounting standards. Direxion Daily P/B of 1.37 shows the market assigns a modest premium over accounting equity. Value and price for Direxion Daily are related but not identical, and they can diverge across cycles. Valuation work aligns these measures into a single analytical context.
Direxion Daily's estimated value and market price are complementary but separate measures of worth. For Direxion Daily, key inputs include a P/E ratio of 12.66, and a P/B ratio of 1.37. Direxion Daily's trading price represents the transaction level agreed by market participants. This dataset reflects observed data and is not advisory in nature.