Ellsworth Convertible Stock Forward View

ECF Stock  USD 11.96  0.26  2.13%   
Ellsworth Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Ellsworth Convertible's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 5th of February 2026 the relative strength index (rsi) of Ellsworth Convertible's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Ellsworth Convertible's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Ellsworth Convertible and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Ellsworth Convertible's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Ellsworth Convertible Growth, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Ellsworth Convertible's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.52)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.06)
Using Ellsworth Convertible hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ellsworth Convertible Growth from the perspective of Ellsworth Convertible response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Ellsworth Convertible Growth on the next trading day is expected to be 11.63 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.06.

Ellsworth Convertible after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 12.2  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ellsworth Convertible to cross-verify your projections.

Ellsworth Convertible Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Ellsworth price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ellsworth using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ellsworth charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

Ellsworth Convertible Cash Forecast

Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the Ellsworth Convertible's financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
 
Cash  
First Reported
1987-09-30
Previous Quarter
4.4 K
Current Value
883.9 K
Quarterly Volatility
1.8 M
 
Oil Shock
 
Dot-com Bubble
 
Housing Crash
 
Credit Downgrade
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
 
Interest Hikes
A naive forecasting model for Ellsworth Convertible is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Ellsworth Convertible Growth value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Ellsworth Convertible Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 6th of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Ellsworth Convertible Growth on the next trading day is expected to be 11.63 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.06.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ellsworth Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ellsworth Convertible's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Ellsworth Convertible Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Ellsworth Convertible  Ellsworth Convertible Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Ellsworth Convertible Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Ellsworth Convertible's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ellsworth Convertible's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.55 and 12.70, respectively. We have considered Ellsworth Convertible's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
11.96
11.63
Expected Value
12.70
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ellsworth Convertible stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ellsworth Convertible stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.293
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1157
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0098
SAESum of the absolute errors7.0598
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Ellsworth Convertible Growth. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Ellsworth Convertible. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Ellsworth Convertible

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ellsworth Convertible. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ellsworth Convertible's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
11.1212.2013.28
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
10.9612.0413.12
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
11.2311.9612.69
Details

Ellsworth Convertible After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Ellsworth Convertible at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ellsworth Convertible or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Ellsworth Convertible, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Ellsworth Convertible Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Ellsworth Convertible's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ellsworth Convertible's historical news coverage. Ellsworth Convertible's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 11.12 and 13.28, respectively. We have considered Ellsworth Convertible's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
11.96
12.20
After-hype Price
13.28
Upside
Ellsworth Convertible is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ellsworth Convertible is based on 3 months time horizon.

Ellsworth Convertible Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ellsworth Convertible is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ellsworth Convertible backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ellsworth Convertible, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.08 
1.08
  0.02 
 0.00  
4 Events / Month
4 Events / Month
In about 4 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
11.96
12.20
0.16 
490.91  
Notes

Ellsworth Convertible Hype Timeline

On the 5th of February Ellsworth Convertible is traded for 11.96. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Ellsworth is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 12.2. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.16%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.08%. The volatility of related hype on Ellsworth Convertible is about 2700.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 11.96. About 50.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.94. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Ellsworth Convertible last dividend was issued on the 24th of November 2025. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 4 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ellsworth Convertible to cross-verify your projections.

Ellsworth Convertible Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Ellsworth Convertible's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ellsworth Convertible's future price movements. Getting to know how Ellsworth Convertible's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ellsworth Convertible may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
NRONeuberger Berman Re(0.02)4 per month 0.00 (0.13) 1.34 (1.29) 2.69 
BCVBancroft Fund Limited 0.30 7 per month 1.18 (0.04) 2.16 (2.11) 6.32 
PIMPutnam Master Intermediate(0.01)3 per month 0.65 (0.06) 1.54 (1.19) 4.32 
PFDFlaherty Crumrine Preferredome 0.02 8 per month 0.54 (0.03) 1.11 (0.86) 2.88 
PNIPimco New York 0.10 3 per month 0.26 (0.09) 0.72 (0.58) 1.73 
EHIWestern Asset Global(0.01)1 per month 0.33  0.02  1.14 (0.79) 3.36 
ALSRXAlger Smallcap Growth 0.00 0 per month 1.48 (0.04) 2.13 (2.35) 5.75 
FLCFlaherty Crumrine Total 0.02 6 per month 0.32 (0.04) 0.63 (0.69) 1.62 
GGTGabelli MultiMedia Mutual 0.00 5 per month 0.83  0.08  1.71 (1.94) 5.19 
NCBVXPrudential Qma Mid Cap 0.00 0 per month 0.51  0.09  1.57 (1.26) 3.36 

Other Forecasting Options for Ellsworth Convertible

For every potential investor in Ellsworth, whether a beginner or expert, Ellsworth Convertible's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ellsworth Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ellsworth. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ellsworth Convertible's price trends.

Ellsworth Convertible Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ellsworth Convertible stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ellsworth Convertible could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ellsworth Convertible by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Ellsworth Convertible Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ellsworth Convertible stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ellsworth Convertible shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ellsworth Convertible stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ellsworth Convertible Growth entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Ellsworth Convertible Risk Indicators

The analysis of Ellsworth Convertible's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ellsworth Convertible's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ellsworth stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Ellsworth Convertible

The number of cover stories for Ellsworth Convertible depends on current market conditions and Ellsworth Convertible's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Ellsworth Convertible is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Ellsworth Convertible's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Ellsworth Convertible Short Properties

Ellsworth Convertible's future price predictability will typically decrease when Ellsworth Convertible's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Ellsworth Convertible Growth often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Ellsworth Convertible's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ellsworth Convertible's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding13.6 M
Cash And Short Term Investments883.9 K
When determining whether Ellsworth Convertible is a strong investment it is important to analyze Ellsworth Convertible's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Ellsworth Convertible's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Ellsworth Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ellsworth Convertible to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Equity Search module to search for actively traded equities including funds and ETFs from over 30 global markets.
Can Asset Management & Custody Banks industry sustain growth momentum? Does Ellsworth have expansion opportunities? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ellsworth Convertible. Projected growth potential of Ellsworth fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Determining accurate worth demands scrutiny of both present operating results and projected expansion capacity. Evaluating Ellsworth Convertible demands reviewing these metrics collectively while recognizing certain factors exert disproportionate influence.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.52)
Dividend Share
0.53
Earnings Share
1.88
Revenue Per Share
0.418
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.06)
Understanding Ellsworth Convertible requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Ellsworth's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value - what Ellsworth Convertible's is actually worth based on fundamentals - guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Market participants employ diverse analytical approaches to determine fair value and identify buying opportunities when prices dip below calculated worth. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Ellsworth Convertible's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Ellsworth Convertible's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Ellsworth Convertible should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. In contrast, Ellsworth Convertible's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.