ECB Bancorp Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| ECBK Stock | USD 16.41 0.33 2.05% |
ECB Bancorp's Triple Exponential Smoothing reference data is generated by applying the model to available daily closing prices. The projected values and error metrics are presented below as reference information.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ECB Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 16.22 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.31.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past ECB Bancorp observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older ECB Bancorp observations. The Triple Exponential Smoothing reference values for ECB Bancorp are derived from publicly available price data and should be used for informational purposes only. Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 20th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ECB Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 16.22 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.05 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.31 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ECB Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ECB Bancorp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for ECB Bancorp focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ECB Bancorp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ECB Bancorp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.013 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1577 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0091 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 9.3059 |
Other Forecasting Options for ECB Bancorp
For investors of all experience levels considering ECB, understanding ECB Bancorp's price movement is fundamental to making sound investment decisions. ECB Stock price charts contain significant noise that can obscure meaningful trends.ECB Bancorp Related Equities
The following equities are related to ECB Bancorp within the Financials space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing ECB Bancorp against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
ECB Bancorp Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for ECB Bancorp stock provide investors with a framework for assessing how the security responds to changing market conditions. These indicators help determine optimal entry and exit points for trading ECB Bancorp.
ECB Bancorp Risk Indicators
Assessing ECB Bancorp's risk indicators is a critical component of any rigorous approach to forecasting its future price. Understanding the risk involved in holding ECB Bancorp's allows investors to make an informed decision about whether to accept or mitigate that exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7934 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.13 | |||
| Variance | 1.28 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for ECB Bancorp
Coverage intensity for ECB Bancorp matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. A disciplined read of coverage helps investors separate durable relevance from temporary noise.
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ECB Bancorp Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to ECB Bancorp matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. The practical goal is to identify when the balance between long and short participation may be changing the quality of the setup.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 8.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 86.9 M |