Eastman Chemical Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| EAC Stock | EUR 59.96 -1.94 -3.13% |
Eastman Chemical's Simple Exponential Smoothing reference page summarizes the forecasted price and model accuracy metrics derived from daily trading data. This reference information is provided for analytical context.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Eastman Chemical on the next trading day is expected to be 59.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.97 and the sum of the absolute errors of 58.95.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Eastman Chemical forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Eastman Chemical observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. This Simple Exponential Smoothing forecast data for Eastman Chemical is sourced from the most recent available trading data and is intended solely as reference information. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 21st of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Eastman Chemical on the next trading day is expected to be 59.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.97 , mean absolute percentage error of 1.70 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 58.95 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Eastman Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Eastman Chemical's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Eastman Chemical | Eastman Chemical Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
Forecasting Eastman Chemical for the next session involves measuring the model's historical ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Eastman Chemical stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Eastman Chemical stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.6407 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.089 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.9664 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.016 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 58.95 |
Other Forecasting Options for Eastman Chemical
The movement of Eastman price is the central consideration for investors deciding whether to enter or hold a position. Noise in Eastman Stock price charts can make it difficult to distinguish meaningful trends from random fluctuations.Eastman Chemical Related Equities
The following equities are related to Eastman Chemical within the Materials space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Eastman Chemical against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Eastman Chemical Market Strength Events
Investors use market strength indicators for Eastman Chemical to evaluate how the stock performs relative to broader market trends. These indicators support more precise timing of Eastman Chemical positions, helping investors maximize return and minimize poorly-timed trades.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.97 | |||
| Day Median Price | 59.96 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 59.96 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.97 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -1.94 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 48.91 |
Eastman Chemical Risk Indicators
A careful analysis of Eastman Chemical's basic risk indicators provides context for understanding the risk environment surrounding eastman stock. This understanding is an essential input for forecasting Eastman Chemical's future price and for deciding how to manage the associated investment risk.
| Mean Deviation | 1.64 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.77 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.19 | |||
| Variance | 4.8 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.65 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.12 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.83 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Eastman Chemical
Coverage intensity for Eastman Chemical matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. A disciplined read of coverage separates durable relevance from temporary noise.
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More Resources for Eastman Stock Analysis
Initial analysis of Eastman Chemical centers on its financial statements and observed trends. Ratios connect earnings, costs, and operational efficiency.Historical Fundamental Analysis of Eastman Chemical provides a cross-check on projections for Eastman Chemical. The view supplies historical context for the projection discussion. For a detailed overview of how to trade Eastman Stock, see our How to Trade Eastman Stock guide.With Eastman Chemical showing P/E 10.65 and ROE 7.99%, investors get more value when this analysis is combined with the diversification and construction tools below. That valuation within Basic Materials invites comparison with Chemicals peers using the tools below to judge whether the multiple is justified. You can also try the Portfolio Analyzer module to portfolio analysis module that provides access to portfolio diagnostics and optimization engine.